Sending 230,000 people to Bendigo might not be the best way to tackle a looming population explosion, a group advising Victorian decision makers says.
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Infrastructure Victoria has crunched numbers on different ways the state could deal with the 4.5 million extra people expected in Victoria by 2056.
Ideas ranged from more high-rises around inner city Melbourne to a major migration into country Victoria.
It also included a scenario in which Melbourne's population growth slowed as tree-changers flocked to Victoria's three main regional cities, with Bendigo's nearly tripling to 350,000 by 2056.
Infrastructure Victoria wanted to test that notion to give decision makers some clarity about what it might entail, chief executive Jonathan Spear said.
"You often hear people say Victoria should send lots of people to regional cities and this will somehow solve Melbourne's problems,"
"Our research shows that is not the best pathway to take," he said.
It is also one of the less likely roads Victoria could go down as it grapples with a rising population, Dr Spear said.
More compact living needed
Infrastructure Victoria expected Bendigo to have a still-sizeable 200,000 by 2056 under most of the scenarios it has gamed out - up from about 120,000 in 2023.
That is similar to the City of Greater Bendigo's expectations for the future.
The best option for Victoria would be to ease up on urban sprawl in favour of a "compact city" model, with better use of underdeveloped land in established suburbs of Melbourne and other parts of the state, the group found.
Bendigo could also become more compact, albeit without the need for Melbourne-style skyscrapers, Infrastructure Victoria suggested
Compact cities could give people more affordable housing options and make it easier to get to important destinations like work and health services, while businesses have more connections to potential staff and customers, much of Infrastructure Victoria's research has found.
That was not to say Bendigo should abandon housing builds at the edge of the city, Dr Spear said.
He encouraged Victorian decision-makers to improve planning rules so Bendigo could better offer housing choices in existing suburbs.
"There is a choice to be made. Just repeating greenfield growth at the edge of cities is not the only or best way to do things," he said.
"That's the mistake we made in Melbourne over the past decades."
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Dr Spear's advice came as developers explored options for more apartment options in Bendigo's city centre, and as Bendigo's council drafted a managed growth strategy widely expected to support apartment-style living in the CBD.
Infrastructure Victoria's recommendations for state's future:
- Use a new plan for Victoria to reinforce established area growth, set regional city urban growth boundaries, and include housing targets for the established areas of Victorian cities. Use these targets in land use framework plans, regional growth plans, and the Victoria Planning Provisions.
- Develop and publish long-term plans for infrastructure sectors to meet the policies and targets set by a new plan for Victoria. Use these integrated land use and infrastructure plans to decide infrastructure project funding.
- Reform infrastructure contributions, remove taxes and subsidies that fuel dispersed growth, and change planning rules to create more compact cities in Victoria.
- Plan for and deliver infrastructure that supports more people and jobs locating in established parts of major regional centres, including local transport, energy, water, and digital infrastructure.
- Plan for efficient and resilient electricity distribution infrastructure. Stimulate development and use of zero or low carbon materials and building construction and operation methods that reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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Tom O'Callaghan
I grew up in Bendigo and I want to tell your stories.
I grew up in Bendigo and I want to tell your stories.
