The Bureau of Meteorology has declared a La Nia event is underway in the Pacific Ocean and communities in eastern Australia should be prepared for above-average rainfall over spring and early summer.
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Bureau of Meteorology head of long-range forecasts, Dr Andrew Watkins, said the Bureau's three-month climate outlook shows a high chance of above average rainfall for most of the eastern half of the Australian mainland and eastern Tasmania.
"During La Nia events, waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, and waters in the western tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than normal.
"This causes changes in wind, cloud and pressure patterns over the Pacific. When this change in the atmosphere combines with changes in ocean temperature, it can influence global weather patterns and climate, including increasing rainfall over large parts of Australia".
Dr Watkins said while La Nia criteria have been met, most models forecast this event to be weak to moderate in strength, likely to peak during spring and ease during summer.
"La Nia is not the only driver influencing this wet outlook. To our west, a significant negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway. We expect the IOD influence will reduce in late spring or early summer," Dr Watkins said.
The La Nina warning comes as central Victoria prepares for more rain in coming days, with strong showers set for Thursday and Friday.
On Wednesday, there will be a 90 per cent chance of rain with between two and six millimetres expected in Bendigo. Castlemaine can expect similar rainfall while further north in Echuca there will be between 1 and 4mm.
The showers will be most likely in the late afternoon and evening.
On Thursday, there will be a 95 per cent chance of rain in Bendigo with 5 to 10mm expected.
The wet weather will continue on Friday when Bendigo can expect between 8 and 10mm, Echuca between 5 and 8mm, and Castlemaine between 8 and 15mm.
Dr Watkins said all these climate influences push Australia's climate towards a wetter phase, and together have shaped our outlook for the coming months that shows more than 80 per cent chance of above average rainfall for many parts of the eastern half of Australia.
With catchments already wet, the flood risk remains, particularly for eastern Australia.
The Bureau is encouraging communities to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings on the Bureau's website and BOM Weather app.
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Lucy Williams
Journalist with an interest in telling regional and rural stories, and covering the diverse array of topics that matter to the people of Bendigo.
Journalist with an interest in telling regional and rural stories, and covering the diverse array of topics that matter to the people of Bendigo.
