After three drought-stressed years spent struggling to keep Australia's farmgate production values near the $60 billion mark, farmers have broken through with a booming $65 billion year tipped for 2020-21.
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The nation's second largest winter crop and a promising rainfall outlook for summer have pushed the latest production tip from the national farm commodities forecaster into new territory - up seven per cent on previous estimates.
Only three months ago the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources Economics and Sciences was talking about the gross value of farm production likely to climb to about $61 billion.
However, at that point it was cautious about lower prices dragging on livestock industry returns and the potential cost of the coronavirus pandemic on the horticulture harvest.
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Now ABARES executive director Dr Steve Hatfield Dodds has described overall farm production as generally "bouncing back from the drought", although our overall agricultural export outlook is weaker.
"Livestock prices have stayed high with herd and flock rebuilding and continued international demand," he said.
"We're expecting a near all-time high winter crop - the best ever in NSW - and a more favourable outlook for summer cropping than we have seen in recent years."
The residual effectsof past dry seasons and trade uncertainties are pushing down export values
- Steve Hatfield Dodds, ABAREs
ABARES' latest Agriculture Commodities report has charted the farming sector recovery from drought, and its resilience in the face of COVID-19.
But while production was now forecast to jump seven per cent on last financial year's drought results, this financial year's exports were set to fall by the same percentage, to $44.7 billion.
"Exports have continued to find markets during the pandemic, but the residual effects of past dry seasons and trade uncertainties are pushing down export value," he said.
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The recovery from drought conditions was keeping more livestock on farms to breed up rather than being available to meat exporters, while overseas meat prices were also starting to wane as the recovery from the past year's African swine fever epidemic lifted China's pork production.
That forecast was a notable change from ABARES' September commodities report which had said despite COVID-19 reducing consumer spending power, red meat prices were likely to remain close to historic highs, particularly for Chinese consumers who would need alternatives to local pork for some years.
Elsewhere on the China front, ABARES has noted a number of risks for the rest of 2021 remained watch points for agricultural sector earnings.
These included the impact of massive import tariffs on the wine trade with China, and continuing labour shortages for the horticulture sector.
Andrew Marshall
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
Andrew Marshall is the group agribusiness writer for ACM's state agricultural weeklies and websites. He is a former editor at The Land and has worked in various Rural Press group roles in Canberra, North Richmond (NSW) and Toowoomba (Qld).
