Northern dams may be full but authorities are taking a cautious approach

GMW has just released its Annual Water Outlook, which provides information to current and prospective water entitlement holders to help guide their planning for the months ahead.

Northern Victoria Water Resources Manager Mark Bailey said while there was plenty of water in reserve for entitlement holders, storage levels were likely to decline.

Dr Bailey said the Bureau of Meteorology has indicated the likelihood of above median summer rainfall in the GMW-region was about 50 per cent.

"During the summer months we generally see storage levels drop due to diminishing inflows and increasing demand for water," Dr Bailey said.

"Therefore, while the BoM is not predicting a particularly dry summer, we still expect water levels to decrease.

"Similarly, it is also likely groundwater levels will decrease in the coming months, as customers begin extracting more."

Dr Bailey acknowledged putting out a forecast in mid-November, early December, was quite difficult, given the current El Nino.

It would also be affected by what irrigators did with their water, over the coming months.

"The fact we have got low reliability water shares allocated in the big systems, the Goulburn and the Murray, is a good indication those systems will get to 100 per cent in 2024-25," he said.

Other systems would rely on inflows from the new water year, which started on July 1.

Irrigation season for Goulburn Murray Irrigation District would start on August 1.

"It gives people a bit of a picture as to what is happening at this stage and what may occur over the next few months," he said.

"One of the other things a lot of irrigators do is look to temperatures, so while the rainfall might be close to expectations, temperature may be a bit warmer, so that might change the way people decide to irrigate as well," he said.

Most northern Victorian storages currently remain close to full, with Dartmouth at 98.5 per cent of capacity, the Hume Dam on 89.8pc and Eildon sitting at 98.6pc.

All other storages, with the exception of Cairn Curran (86pc) are holding more than 90pc of their capacity.

It comes at a time when northern irrigators feel let down by planned federal water buybacks.

That meant most water entitlement holders were still in a strong position, Dr Bailey said.

"In November 2023, all systems in our region reached 100 per cent of their high reliability water shares," he said.

"For systems such as the Murray, Goulburn, Campaspe and Loddon, which store enough water for multiple years of usage, this means they will likely start the 2024/25 water year in a good position.

"The Broken, Bullarook and Ovens systems will be more dependent on conditions closer to the start of the new water year, and it is too early to predict what these conditions might be."

Several of GMW's groundwater systems would require some rainfall to reach 100pc of their allocations during the 2024/25 water year, Dr Bailey said.

And despite a positive outlook on water availability for the next 12 months, Dr Bailey said GMW was continuing to plan for a future with more limited resources.

"While our region has experienced some significant rainfall events in the last couple of years, the long-term trends show the average inflows to our storages are decreasing," he said.

"Through modernising its assets and improving its delivery network, GMW has helped ensure irrigation in northern Victoria remains sustainable.

Bendigo-based broker H20X chief executive Lex Batters, said prices in the Goulburn were currently sitting on $110-$115/megalitre, while Murray above choke was $70-75 and Murray below choke is $140-145ML.

He said the outlook was "pretty much as expected.

"The dams are full, usage has been low and we'll see rainfall drop off, over summer," Mr Batters said.

"There's plenty of water in storage for next year as evidenced by Low Reliability Water Share (LRWS) allocations in the Goulburn and Murray.

"I think the market is pricing in 100pc allocations against High Reliability Water Share next year, so this shouldn't have an impact on the market."

He agreed irrigators were more closely watching the BoM long term forecasts as to what autumn/winter and winter/spring might look like.

"If they are dry we'll see prices climb as irrigators look to secure water before prices rise," Mr Batters said.

Dairy farmer Ann Gardiner, and her family run 900 head at Bamawm, said the issuing of LRWS indicated G-MW was confident irrigators would continue to have 100pc HRWS shares next year.

"So far this calendar year, spring has been pretty kind to us - it's heated up now, and I know a lot of people have corn and summer crops in and are planning to make a fair bit of feed," Ms Gardiner said.

If irrigators could start next year with 100pc HRWS allocation, they would feel reasonably secure.

"It depends on if we get a reasonable break in the autumn - there are a lot of summer crops in, as it's been a pretty handy spring," she said.

"If you have been watering, growth rates have been pretty high."

"We have just cut 300 tonnes of permanent pasture for hay and silage, surplus to our needs - we are not the only ones and it's going into the stack, for next winter."

The Annual Water Outlook is available on the GMW website at: www.gmwater.com.au/water-resources/water-resource-update