A CENTRAL Victorian electorate is now notionally the government's eighth most marginal seat even though it is currently held by an opposition MP.
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Ripon's Louise Staley will go into November's election with 47.2 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote compared to Labor, the Victorian Electoral Commission says after recalculating the vote to take into account new boundaries.
She won the 2018 election with 50.2 per cent of the vote, compared to Labor's candidate.
The findings for the seat - which includes Maryborough, Dunolly, St Arnaud and Bridgewater - is included in an analysis encompassing lower house seats across central Victoria.
Ripon's changes would have flowed on to independent Ali Cupper, who wrested control of Mildura from the National Party in 2018.
Ms Cupper won that election with a razor thin 50.34 per cent of the two-party preferred vote compared to the Nationals' Peter Crisp.
Murray's redrawn boundaries now include Ripon's old towns of Charlton and Donald.
The electoral commission said it was impossible to know for sure how residents of those towns would have voted if Ms Cupper had been on their ballots in 2018.
"However, it is possible to make reasonable guesses, relying on the fact that the Independents tended to do well in their own districts and had a profile in the areas transferred to their districts," it said.
The electoral commission estimated Ms Cupper would have won 49.6 per cent of the vote if redrawn boundaries had been used in 2018.
This year's election will of course be fought over very different issues than 2022, not least because of the pandemic and its after-effects.
But small gains here and there could prove decisive in hotly contested seats, especially those like Murray, which was until the last election considered Nationals heartland.
The findings there and in Ripon illustrate the pressures a would-be Coalition government faces on multiple fronts.
The Nationals failed to take back another former rural stronghold, Indi, at this year's federal election and the seat is currently held by independent Helen Haines.
It did successfully fight off a close contest in Nicholls from independent Rob Priestly.
Meanwhile, Labor continues to ride high in statewide polls.
A Roy Morgan poll from July estimated the government had a "large election winning lead" with 59.5 of the two-party preferred vote.
"All the signs point to an easy third election victory in a row coming up for Premier Daniel Andrews and the Labor government with the large two-party preferred lead being consistently maintained over the last few years despite the extended lockdowns in Victoria," the polling company's chief executive Michele Levine said at the time.
This story was updated at 9.05am to correct a number of statistical inaccuracies and a misspelled name.
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Tom O'Callaghan
I grew up in Bendigo and I want to tell your stories.
I grew up in Bendigo and I want to tell your stories.
