Ticket to ride - or not: Bendigo trains among the most likely to cancel

ACM has crunched the numbers and can reveal the best and worst places to catch the train in regional Victoria.

We've looked at how punctual the trains are on each line, how often they're cancelled and how modern the trains are.

The Bendigo and Geelong lines suffered the most frequent cancellations, with a 12-month average of 95.2 and 95.7 per cent reliability. They were the only lines to average below V/Line's 96 per cent target.

We also tried to analyse how often trains on each line were overcrowded, but V/Line wouldn't hand over the data.

The two key criteria for deciding the best and worst train lines were reliability and punctuality: how often trains were cancelled on each line, and how often they were late.

A glance at the data for the past 12 months reveals some clear winners and losers.

Cancellations are surprisingly rare across the V/Line network. Even the worst months for a particular line never dipped below 90 per cent reliability.

The Swan Hill/Echuca and Bairnsdale lines were the most reliable, with an average of 99.1 per cent over the year.

The punctuality stats revealed a much bigger spread of results.

The Warrnambool Line was by far the worst in the state. Its trains were on time on just 69 per cent of journeys across the year, and in August and September 2023 every second train was late.

The Gippsland Line, which travels to Traralgon in the state's east, was also notably tardy. It recorded a 78 per cent 12-month average, dipping to 69 per cent in August.

V/Line divides its lines into shorter "commuter" lines - Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Seymour and Gippsland - and "long distance" lines - Warrnambool, Ararat, Maryborough, Swan Hill, Echuca, Shepparton, Albury and Bairnsdale.

A commuter service is considered "on time" if it arrives within 5 minutes 59 seconds of schedule, while a long distance service is on time if it gets in within 10 minutes 59 seconds of the timetabled arrival.

V/Line's punctuality target is 92 per cent. Just one line - Shepparton - met the target across the past 12 months, with a 94.7 per cent average.

Most lines never even met the target across a single month.

The global gold standard for performance - Japan's Shinkansen trains - were on time on 99 per cent of journeys, with an average delay of less than a minute, even including delays due to natural disasters.

ACM asked V/Line why its trains consistently fell so far short of their timeliness targets.

The state-run authority said vandalism, extreme weather, animal strikes, trespassers, emergency services incidents and line maintenance all contributed. It didn't say whether issues with the trains themselves ever caused cancellations or delays.

"We thank passengers for their understanding when there are changes to their services as we work to deliver safe and reliable services to regional communities across Victoria," a V/Line spokesperson said.

ACM calculated an overall score based on each line's combined reliability and punctuality, with Warrnambool the clear loser and Shepparton a comfortable winner. Ballarat and Bendigo finished in a dead heat in mid-table.

Train quality was another key factor to decide which Victorian line got the gong, and which got the wooden spoon.

As of March 2024, most of the lines had the new-generation VLocity trains running on them most of the time.

The VLocity is a diesel multiple unit train - meaning it doesn't require a locomotive - that's faster (top speed 160 km/h) and has better amenities than the old locomotive-driven trains (top speed 115 km/h).

The trains were introduced to all the commuter lines, as well as Echuca and Ararat, in 2005 and 2006. Maryborough was added in 2010, Bairnsdale in 2018, Albury in 2021 and Shepparton in 2022.

The Victorian government announced upgrades to the Warrnambool Line in 2017, with then-Premier Daniel Andrews predicting VLocity trains would be heading to south-west Victoria by the end of 2018.

But Warrnambool still doesn't have the next-gen trains. The latest in a series of changing deadlines for the new service is late 2024, with line upgrades still underway.

Despite the line upgrades the new trains - when they eventually arrive - won't be able to go any faster than the current locomotive driven service because the tracks aren't equipped to handle the higher speeds.

Several other lines also have speed restrictions on their VLocity services as they await track and signalling upgrades.

When Warrnambool gets its new trains, Swan Hill - currently a four-hour-45-minute journey - will be the last line without a VLocity service.

The state government has plunged nearly $2 billion into the regional rail network since 2017, with the federal government tipping in a further $2.3 billion.

It has upgraded every line, with new platforms, stations, and level crossing removals, as well as hundreds of new services to tackle overcrowding.

ACM asked V/Line for the crowding data for each regional line, but it refused.

A spokesperson would only give network-wide data for January 2019 and January 2024, which showed a decline from 8.2 per cent of passengers standing, to 3.8 per cent of passengers.

But independently sourced data showed just 2.0 per cent of passengers were standing in early 2023, suggesting crowding may be on the rise after patronage plummeted during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The spokesperson said patronage had surged since the government slashed the price of V/Line tickets to $9.20, which has since risen to $10.

"The regional fare cap has transformed the way people travel around the state, with more than 21 million trips taken on the V/Line network in 2023 and tens of millions of dollars saved by passengers," they said.