NSW-style reforms could wipe as much as $12.7 million off annual poker machine revenues in Bendigo, based on an expert's insights, tweaks specific to Victoria's system and past losses.
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Such a hit could prompt venues to ease their reliance on gambling losses in a period of too few incentives, Monash University expert Charles Livingstone says.
"You wouldn't do this overnight. You'd give pubs and clubs plenty of warning," he said.
Dr Livingstone thinks even without the cashless cards being considered in NSW, gambler-selected spending limits could wipe 20 to 25 per cent off of gambling losses in the short and medium term.
That would have made an eight figure dent if it had been in place during Bendigo venues' $50.7 million haul in 2018/19.
Local pubs and clubs appear on track for a high intake this financial year.
Gamblers lost $31.4 million in the six months to New Year's Eve, $4.5 more than over the same 2019 period before the pandemic wrought havoc on venue opening hours, Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission data suggests.
NSW premier Dominic Perrottet wants mandatory cashless gambling cards if reelected in March.
The cards would make people prove their identity and allow them to set loss limits.
It is a move enthusiastically welcomed by the Alliance for Gambling Reform, whose chief advocate Tim Costello called it the most significant and wide-ranging poker machine reform he had seen in 30 years of campaigning.
"A mandatory cashless gambling card will reduce gambling harm and also combat the billions of dollars in the proceeds and crime that are laundered and spent on poker machines across the state's pubs and clubs every year," he said.
Critics question the extensiveness of research into cashless gambling cards and say clubs might have to pay for unproven technology. It could also risk clubs' ability to support communities.
Clubs NSW has described it as a heavy-handed response to money laundering that other ideas could fix.
Premier Daniel Andrews has not ruled out Victoria one day considering mandating cashless cards.
His state's poker machine scene differs in key ways to NSW.
Clubs are not necessarily as big and there are tighter limits on how much can be bet at once, Dr Livingstone said.
"Having said that, there's still enormous harm associated with poker machine gambling," he said.
Victoria has a voluntary system gamblers can use to limit what they bet but at the moment is not widely used, Dr Livingstone said.
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