Bendigo is expecting a median 28.9 degrees, Maryborough 28.7 and Castlemaine 27.8, data published Thursday by the Bureau of Meteorology predicts.

Yet it remains unclear whether hotter temperatures will mean drier conditions.

The bureau is predicting a 70 per cent chance of an El Niño pattern forming over Eastern Australia, roughly triple the normal risk. 

El Niño systems typically bring drier and warmer conditions, but effects tend to be less pronounced in the south during summer.

The bureau will release its spring summaries next Monday, but preliminary figures show it is likely to be one of Victoria’s 10 driest on record.

Whether or not the Elmore and Colbinabbin region was now in drought depended on how you looked at it, Landmark Agronomist Greg Toomey said.

“If you classify drought as being in decile one (a year in the lowest 10 per cent on record) for rainfall, you might call it that,” he said.

“I’m not sure that income-wise you would call it a drought.”

People in the region had made enough money to at least cover their costs and not go backwards.

They had taken advantage of good grain, sheep and wool prices. Crops had benefited because of cooler spring temperatures.

“But, you don’t probably have to go far over the river into New South Wales and you could not call it anything else (but drought),” Mr Toomey said.

Opinion: Is it time to change, or at least balance the drought narrative?

Some farmers in Mr Toomey’s traditionally winter cropping area were turning attention to the summer growing season.

Those with access to reasonably priced water could take advantage of good corn prices, for example, but that was not an option for everyone.

“The price of irrigation water is very dear,” Mr Toomey said.

South of Bendigo, Henry of Harcourt owner Michael Henry said rain over the past week was good, but was drastically short of what was needed to see the cidery through summer.

The cidery could rely on access to irrigation water from the Malmsbury Reservoir, with Mr Henry saying the farm currently had access to all its entitlements.

The Bureau of Meteorology estimates Harcourt will see median temperatures of 27.8 degrees.

Mr Henry said for apple farmers there would likely be no major change to growing practices.

“The only thing we would be concerned about would be keeping the trees alive, and the fruit on them, if we get a long hot spell,” he said.

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