There is something incongruous when a Liberal prime minister fails to attend the Victorian Liberal leader’s election campaign launch, yet the next day makes a major announcement promising funds for the Great Ocean Road, while Mathew Guy is just up the road in Ballarat.
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With the coalition parties in Victoria trailing badly in the latest poll, it is abundantly clear that the Victorian Liberals want little to do with their federal counterparts.
While Labor has a considerable lead in the polls at the beginning of the election campaign, and are clearly favourites to retain government, to win they must retain their marginal seats, of which there are many.
The Liberals, in one sense, are fighting two foes, Labor, and the division manifest at a federal level, which will clearly impact on the Victorian election result.
While the focus of many commentators is, justifiably, on the key sandbelt seats in Melbourne, there are many regional seats that will be decisive in the final outcome.
In Bendigo, Ballarat, Geelong there are important seats that the government must retain to hold on to power.
Bendigo East, held by public transport minister and leader of the House, Jacinta Allan, since 1999, has a margin of five per cent. With the Nationals entering the fray for the first time in years, low profile Liberal candidate Ian Ellis is hopeful of snaring this seat on the back of Nats’ preferences but faces an uphill task.
Bendigo West, held by Labor’s deputy speaker, Maree Edwards, is unassailable given her 12 per cent margin.
In Ballarat, the Liberals face a similarly daunting task. Both seats are held by Labor. Wendouree has a margin of 5.4 per cent and Buninyong, to the south of the city, has a healthy margin of 6.4 per cent.
Two particularly interesting regional seats are Morwell and Ripon. Morwell, currently held by the Nationals, faces a determined challenge from Labor and ex-federal Motor Enthusiasts Party senator, Ricky Muir. Given the controversy over the sitting member, it would not surprise if Labor or Muir won this seat.
Ripon is on a knife-edge and could well be won by Labor.
If the Liberals are to win this month’s state election they must not just rely on winning seats in Melbourne, they must pick up some regional seats from Labor.
Given the polls and the changing demographics in regional seats, this appears a forlorn task.
