Despite Tuesday’s thunderstorm and heavy rains, Bendigo has had just 92.2 millimetres of rain in 2018 to date. 

On average, the city receives 176.7 millimetres, and by this date in 2017, 259.2 millimetres had fallen.

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Bendigo’s dry conditions fit within the broader weather patterns across Victoria and much of South Eastern Australia.

“Our model is currently showing quite a strong shift towards a dryer than average winter, and that extends probably over the northern half of Victoria, but it does just cover the Bendigo region as well,” said Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Felicity Gamble.

“The odds are favouring a dryer than average winter, but also a warmer than average conditions.”

Areas around the Murray-Darling Basin and Eastern NSW are particularly likely to experience the predicted dry weather, with a 70-80 percent chance of receiving below average rainfall. Around Australia, the chances of exceeding average rainfall sit at approximately 50 percent.

Warm and dry weather conditions are likely largely a result of particularly warm temperatures in the Tasman Sea in November of 2017, says Ms Gamble.

Climate change is also likely to be contributing to the lack of rain, currently manifested in a drying trend across Southern Australia, she said.

Bendigo sits on the border of areas experiencing a serious rainfall deficiency from January to April 2018.

Warmer than conditions are likely to be exacerbating the impact of low rainfall on agriculture, said Ms Gamble.

This effect is likely to continue throughout winter, with June and July in particular forecast to have warmer than average daytime temperatures.

“When you have the warmer than average temperatures… we see greater evaporation rates, which also can have quite a big impact on the agricultural regions,” Ms Gamble said.

“This time of year a lot of grain farmers for example, they’ve got their crops in the ground and they’re quite reliant on getting winter rainfall.”

The dry outlook follows on from an unusually warm summer and autumn. The past three months have been one of the warmest autumns on record for Australia, and the summer was the second warmest on record.