The latest seasonal bushfire outlook suggests Victoria could experience a more severe fire season this coming summer, with an earlier start in parts of the state.
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The outlook shows there is currently ‘above-normal’ potential for bushfire across central Victoria.
Emergency Management Commissioner Craig Lapsley said it indicated underlying dryness in parts of central Victoria and in the east of the state.
“While there is a lot of surface water, which means there will be grass growth and a healthy supply of water for crop growing, ground moisture has the potential to dry out quickly under dry and warm conditions,” Mr Lapsley said.
But he said the level of fire risk in October to December would depend on rainfall this month.
The outlook report, prepared at a Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre and Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council workshop, says there was below-average to record dry conditions across southern Australia from May to August.
The report says this has added to longer-term drying trend: Victoria has experienced below-average cooler season rainfall for 17 of the past 20 seasons.
“Very long-term deficiencies like these are not matched in the historical record, and have been associated with a marked increase in fire weather severity in the past decade,” the report says.
It adds that climate change has seen temperatures climb to above-average.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for September to November suggests there is a 65 to 75 per cent chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature this spring in central Victoria.
The bushfire report advises there is a risk of an early fire season in the northern and central western grain growing areas because of “good prospects for spring growth”.
Mr Lapsley said pre-season briefings with emergency organisations and other relevant agencies would soon begin, with the CFA and Forest Fire Management Victoria to bring forward their fire preparedness activities.
He said it was important the community also start thinking about their bushfire plans and use the spring months to prepare for the risk of fire.
Natalie Croxon
Reporter at the Illawarra Mercury, mostly covering social affairs. Previously of the Bendigo Advertiser, Northern Daily Leader and Quirindi Advocate. Our Watch award winner.
Reporter at the Illawarra Mercury, mostly covering social affairs. Previously of the Bendigo Advertiser, Northern Daily Leader and Quirindi Advocate. Our Watch award winner.
