LIVE COVERAGE: Central Victoria decides
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TALLY ROOM: Live figures from central Victorian seats
Labor is in danger of losing two of its traditional strongholds in Bill Shorten's home state, where the rise of the Greens and a bitter stoush over the CFA could help Malcolm Turnbull return to government in his own right.
By 9pm on Saturday, Labor had a swing of 3.12 per cent nationally, but in Victoria – where Labor hardheads were hopeful of some gains – the swing towards the party was only 1.8 per cent.
With 46 per cent of the vote counted, the ALP was at risk of losing the suburban seat of Chisholm vacated by former speaker Anna Burke, while in the inner city, embattled MP David Feeney was under threat from Greens candidate Alex Bhathal, with both sides declaring the contest too close to call.
Labor's chances of winning back the marginal Coalition seat of Corangamite had also been dented early in the vote count – with incumbent Sarah Henderson consolidating her position from the last federal poll - but the party had more luck in the regional seat of McEwen, where incumbent MP Rob Mitchell was able to retain his seat.
The results suggest Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews' handling of the CFA stoush had some impact throughout the state, but the damage was not as severe as initially feared.
Nonetheless, the Premier already faces retribution within federal Labor ranks, with some colleagues privately furious that the firefighters' dispute proved to be such a distraction in Victoria, making it harder for Mr Shorten to campaign on his home turf and giving the Coalition ammunition to claim that Labor is beholden to the unions.
In other preliminary results on Saturday night:
- Bendigo MP Lisa Chesters was on track to retain her seat with a swing towards Labor.
- The Liberals appeared set to narrowly hold on in the marginal seats of Dunkley, Deakin and Latrobe.
- Assistant Treasurer Kelly O'Dwyer looked likely to hold on in the seat of Higgins, despite a swing to the Greens.
- Labor hardheads were sweating on the outcome of Melbourne Ports, where sitting MP Michael Danby had opted to preference the government ahead of the Greens.
- The seat of Murray, vacated by Liberal MP Sharman Stone,was likely to fall to the Nationals, with former footballer Damian Drum holding 59 per cent of the two-party vote by 9pm.
After a marathon eight-week campaign, conventional wisdom suggests that tonight's election would be won or lost in key battlegrounds across western Sydney and Queensland, with Victoria widely seen as fairly safe territory for Labor, which currently holds 19 out of 37 seats across the state.
However, any major losses for Mr Shorten are likely to spark widespread recriminations, with some MPs already turning on Mr Andrews for escalating the CFA dispute in the middle of the campaign.
