It's hard to avoid the perception that Muddied Oafs' deepest wounds have been self-inflicted. By worshipping on the altar of commercialism since the game turned professional, they've sacrificed their identity, their constituency, and ultimately their participation. More on that later.

Rugby is shrinking - by all measures - because it's disconnected from its base. That's the moral of the story for the FFA as it approaches an equally critical juncture. Buffeted by a perfect storm of constitutional demands for greater democracy and transparency, a mutiny by A-League owners, a thirst for expansion and a push for a national second division, the FFA has been circling the wagons rather than opening the door. Wrong.

Ignoring the clamour from the rank-and-file won't solve anything. Instead, embracing them will revitalise, and monetise, the game's greatest asset. It's size. That's how to make sure football doesn't repeat rugby's mistakes. Socialism versus capitalism? I'm backing people power to win in the end.

There's a credible view that the professional football codes in Australia have reached a tipping point. Rugby may well be the canary in the coalmine. Pay television, which over two decades has morphed sports into industries, faces a difficult future. The gravy train may be pulling into the station.

Trouble is, too many of those running these sports have become complacent, and narrow-minded. They've come to manage though the one-dimensional prism of broadcast revenue - a small screen version of a much bigger picture. It's become all about the commerce, and little else. The suits and the boots have never been so far apart.

For the NRL and the AFL, the honeymoon is not yet over because they're still getting over-the-odds from TV. For rugby, though, the balancing act has reached the precipice. And it's left itself with very little to fall back on.

Strangely enough, it's football - which has never been able to gorge on gigantic broadcast deals - which is best positioned to flourish in the emerging commercial landscape. Why? Because of the numbers. Not the ones on a Whitlam Square spreadsheet, but the ones where it really matters. At a park near you.

In the last six months, two major surveys have re-confirmed the game's status as a grassroots monolith. Not just in terms of the football codes, but in terms of all of Australia's major sporting pursuits.

At the end of last year, the federal government's Ausplay survey put club-based participation in football at 1,086,986, or an incredible 18.8 per cent of all participation in the country. For decades, participation numbers of all sports - including football - have been manipulated to suit an argument. This survey has a strong claim for independence, and impartiality. Which is why rival codes such as AFL (625,627) and rugby league (247,883) were unhappy. Rugby? It didn't even make the list.

A few months later came further proof of football's player power. Roy Morgan Research - based on the looser definition of "regular participation" - still had football as No.1, but it was the trend which raised eyebrows. Comparing the 15-year gap between 2001 (when a similar survey was last completed) and 2016, football's numbers have risen by a whopping 46 per cent. Just nine of 27 sports had increased participation, and only rowing (62 percent) has done better than football since 2001.

According to the survey, AFL has effectively flat-lined ( -1 per cent) during that period, while rugby league participation has dropped by 27 per cent. Rugby? It's collapsed by 63 per cent, down to just 55,000 players. Not surprisingly, the ARU described the survey as "fake news", but whichever way you cut it, here's a game in crisis. The price to pay for pulling out the roots.

So that's what the FFA needs to contemplate. The warning signs are clear. The sports of the future will have to look down, not up. People who love their sport need to be engaged, respected, and appreciated. It may not be as easy as pocketing a fat cheque from a broadcaster, but soon it will be the best way forward. For some, the only way.

Rugby either didn't see what was coming, or didn't want to. It's hard to see how rugby can recover from the damage done. The FFA's challenge is to make a quantum leap of faith, to look beyond the spreadsheet and see the horizon. It's an exciting one if it opens the door, and open its mind. Watch this space.