Australians will wake up on Sunday morning to either a re-elected Turnbull government or one of the biggest coups in federal political history.

But the main game aside, close watchers of politics will keep their eyes on a slew of exciting trends and head-to-head contests around the country.

Here are a few:

1. The swing

Even if the Coalition wins, as widely expected, pay attention to the size of the swing and the number of seats the government loses.

Malcolm Turnbull will want a healthy win in order to cement authority within his party against those who remain Tony Abbott loyalists.

Bill Shorten will be looking to gain a solid number of seats if he wishes to fend off a possible leadership tilt from Anthony Albanese or others.

2. The rise of the Nick Xenophon Team

The X-factor is huge in South Australia, where the NXT could come away with three senators, and with it the balance of power. Xenophon has already vowed to use his power in the upper house to block what he sees as unfair trade deals.

The party could also enter the lower house, most likely in the Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo. It is blue ribbon Liberal territory, but incumbent Jamie Briggs – who was dumped as a minister after claims he behaved inappropriately towards a female diplomat in a Hong Kong bar – faces a serious threat from the NXT's Rebekha Sharkie.

3. New England and Cowper

Deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce risks losing his sprawling NSW seat of New England to the former incumbent Tony Windsor.

While it would not necessarily be a shock result, the government would lose one of its most famous faces – and the National Party its leader. Polls suggest the contest is very tight.

Rob Oakeshott, another of the independents who came to national attention in the 2010 hung Parliament, is also giving the Nats a headache in the seat of Cowper. It's one to watch.

4. Batman, Melbourne Ports and Higgins

Interesting moves are afoot in these Melbourne seats. The Greens believe they can claim another House seat in Batman, where Labor's David Feeney is under significant pressure.

There have been signs his colleague Michael Danby could run third in Melbourne Ports, behind the Liberals and the Greens. And Assistant Treasurer Kelly O'Dwyer is down to the wire against the Greens' Jason Ball in Higgins.

It's possible, given preferences, that none of these seats will change hands. But worth watching the final numbers, especially as a harbinger of things to come.

5. The CFA effect

Victoria is a Labor stronghold but the party is in serious trouble there courtesy of Premier Daniel Andrews' fight with the Country Fire Authority.

Polls have shown voters are less inclined to vote Labor as a result of the ongoing dispute, which has now seen off the CFA board, chief officer and a state government minister.

It has all but extinguished hopes of Labor gains in seats such as Corangamite. They may even lose seats, as outlined above. So keep an eye on machinations in Bill Shorten's home state.

5. Derryn Hinch and Pauline Hanson

There will be no end to the analysis of what it says about Australia if Pauline Hanson returns to the Federal Parliament. The halved quota of a double dissolution makes it easier for her – and Derryn Hinch in Victoria – to take a seat in the Senate.

Indeed, the Senate may be the most compelling contest of all: Jacqui Lambie is expected to be returned in Tasmania, Glenn Lazarus could scrape back in Queensland while others crossbenchers are set to be wiped out.

It's likely we won't know for sure until some time after polling day. But the size and shape of the crossbench, including Xenophon's numbers, will determine whether the new government is dealing with a disorganised rabble or a powerful voting bloc.

6. The Queensland factor

The Sunshine State is always decisive in federal elections, and both leaders have a spent large amount of time there. But the polls suggest Labor has not convinced enough Queensland voters to swing seats there.

The Liberals now reckon they can hold seats like Brisbane, Petrie and Herbert, limiting Labor to perhaps just one or two gains. And keep an eye on Wayne Swan's seat of Lilley – Labor has been worried about losing it.

Bottom line: if it becomes clear the swing is not on in Queensland, the speeches could come early on Saturday night.

7. Eden Monaro and Lindsay

The two "bellwether" seats of Eden Monaro and Lindsay in NSW have traditionally been won by the government of the day. That might end at this election.

Moreover, hard-heads will be looking at Labor's results in these seats, and many around suburban Sydney and surrounds, as indicators of Labor's success.

If Labor can't win NSW seats such as Robertson, Dobell and Macquarie, then it will have a difficult time forming government either now or in 2019.

8. The Green vote

Greens leader Richard Di Natale with his inner-Melbourne candidates and local MP Adam Bandt in Melbourne. Photo: Paul Jeffers

Have the Greens peaked? The party hit a high water mark in 2010 when they won the seat of Melbourne and scored a national primary vote of 11.8 per cent. That fell back to 8.6 per cent in 2013.

And yet, the Greens have won new state seats in NSW and Victoria, and have polled as high as 15.5 per cent this year. Leader Richard Di Natale has put a modern and arguably more moderate face on the left-wing party.

The Greens' chances of winning new seats in Victoria took a hit when the Liberals opted to preference them behind Labor.

9. Barnett blowback

Premier Colin Barnett is on the nose in Western Australia, and that's a boon for Labor, which has been going backwards in the state for the past 15 years. There is talk it could claim the newly created seat of Burt despite it being notionally Liberal.

Another seat to watch is Cowan, where a redistribution has lifted counter-terror expert Anne Aly into a tight, high-profile battle to beat Liberal incumbent Luke Simpkins.

Former prime minister John Howard turned up in the electorate this week to spruik Simpkins, and fellow West Australian Julie Bishop has been utilised liberally, indicating the Coalition's sense of urgency in the state.

10. The Queendom of Indi

One of the few consolations that progressives could take from the last election was the dumping of maligned Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella by electors in the Victorian seat of Indi.

Now the focus is on whether independent Cathy McGowan can withstand an attempted comeback by Ms Mirabella.

The margin is small – just 0.3 per cent – and Ms McGowan only got across the line thanks to preferences. Pundits expect her to hold fairly comfortably this time, but anything could happen.

11. Pre-poll votes

A record number of Australians voted early, with almost 2.2 million pre-polls cast by Thursday morning – an increase of almost 50 per cent. It's likely these will be counted as one booth, coming online at some point during the count on Saturday night.

Many of these votes were cast before the Brexit referendum – and while that might not make one iota of difference, it's worth paying attention to how this bloc breaks.

12. Warringah

Former TV host James Mathison is challenging Tony Abbott in his Sydney north shore seat. Abbott has held the blue-ribbon electorate since 1994 and won in 2013 with 61 per cent of the primary vote.

He will almost certainly be returned but it will be worth watching whether Mathison puts a serious dent in Abbott's margin.

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