High likelihood of dry months to come

It was rare to see Department of Environment and Primary Industries seasonal variability agronomist Dale Grey without a circle of interested farmers around him at the Elmore Field Days, grilling him on the rainfall prospects for the coming months.

Moisture data maps looked bleak for large areas in the north west, particularly around Birchip, with low prospects of late season rain.

Mr Grey said there was a dramatic drop in subsoil moisture from mid July.

"We had levels of moisture where you could barely walk in paddocks in central Victoria, but now it's almost at zero," he said.

The dry months had left most districts west of the Calder Highway facing dire harvests.

Farmers were also eager to ask about whether early season talks of an El Nino summer were likely to prove correct.

Mr Grey said conditions had started to shape up for a likely El Nino weather event, but now it was unlikely.

He said it was difficult to say whether the coming six months would be drier than usual, but conditions north of Australia seemed to indicate a coming further shortage of rainfall.

"We've seen cooler waters north of Australia over the last two months. There is less tropical moisture in the north," he said.

"This makes the transferal of moisture to the southern parts of Australia more difficult. High pressure in the north also means it could struggle to get moisture down to the south."

Australian and European modeling showed the Australian continent was likely to see dry months.