Building approvals for new homes in Bendigo have risen sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite warnings over a lack of land supply.
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State and federal government stimulus packages such as the HomeBuilder grant have helped propel the surge in new residential approvals.
The figures, supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, show approvals rose from 889 new homes in the 2018-19 financial year to 1080 in 2019-20 and 1274 in 2020-21.
The City of Greater Bendigo expects the rate of population growth to double in coming decades, pressing the need for housing. It made the prediction in a tender document, released at the end of October, for the preparation of a neighbourhood character strategy.
"Bendigo is a city within a forest which, when combined with other challenges such as intensive industry buffers and infrastructure constraints, impacts outward expansion,'' the document said.
"Despite existing constraints, 45 per cent of recent growth has occurred in the greenfield areas including Strathfieldsaye, Huntly, Marong and Maiden Gully. A further 39 per cent occurred in established areas. The remainder of residential growth (15 per cent) occurred in small townships and rural communities.
"It is worth highlighting that over 50 per cent of land in Greater Bendigo is zoned farming and there are a number of rural communities and small townships across the municipality," the document goes on to say.
"These townships are important community hubs while also providing tourism opportunities. These townships often have their own housing needs and valued neighbourhood character and opportunities for growth."
Urban Development Institute of Australia's Victorian northern chapter chairwoman Andrea Tomkinson said looking forward, both infill and greenfield development opportunities would be strangled in Bendigo.
The need for bushfire breaks, preservation of native vegetation and heavily treed areas ruled out a lot of land for development.
Ms Tomkinson said the option to infill established areas was frequently thwarted by local objections, heritage rules and neighbourhood character constraints.
The option of rezoning farm land for residential development was far less affordable than in the past due to the windfall gains tax.
"If you have farmland worth $2 million and you rezone it for residential land, it immediately goes up in value to about $8 million,'' Ms Tomkinson said.
"With the new windfall gains tax, the state government is going to step in and take 50 per cent of the $6 million difference. That $3 million going straight to the state government will make a huge impact on affordability. That money is not spent on the region it came from. It goes straight to state revenue. If it was being spent in the area on parks or schools it might be more bearable but it's not."
The City of Greater Bendigo council has previously indicated it wanted to discourage the further expansion of the urban growth boundary.
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