Pre-releases of water from Lake Hume to maintain airspace have stopped ahead of forecast rain of up to 20 millimetres on Monday.
The Murray Darling Basin Authority released close to 19 gigalitres from Lake Hume this month with the major storage filling to more than 90 cent capacity in recent weeks.
Murray River Action Group is monitoring the situation closely amid fears of another major flood similar to 2016.
"If (between 15 to 20 millimetres) does happen over the hills it is obviously going to increase inflows," MRAG chairman Richard Sargood said.
"Where we are going to come unstuck is if we get a 75 millimetres general rain event.
"If they need to regain airspace for flood mitigation they have to release more than what is coming in, but they are particularly averse to releasing flows in excess of inflows."
⚠️ #Flood Watch issued for North East Victoria and the upper Macalister River. Minor flooding may develop from Monday afternoon.— Bureau of Meteorology, Victoria (@BOM_Vic) August 22, 2021
See https://t.co/HLs2UYFQyQ for details and updates; follow advice from @vicemergency#VicFloods@vicsesnewspic.twitter.com/LR87nX8GSN
A flood watch was issued for the Murray and Mitta rivers on Sunday.
MDBA executive director of river management Andrew Reynolds said:"Inflows to (Lake) Hume are likely to continue to recede for the next week and therefore any additional pre-releases are unlikely in the short-term.
"Every day we evaluate conditions based on Bureau of Meteorology data, inflow data, predicted inflows and historical records to determine how to best manage the dam.
"Looking ahead, the bureau is predicting little rain next week.
"But some higher amounts are forecast the following week. Wetter-than-median rainfall is forecast for spring."
Meanwhile, Environmental Water Holders ordered water, from August 12, to meet flow targets downstream of Yarrawonga.
"We expect this release of environmental water will continue over the next week.," Mr Reynolds said.
"It will support flows into the wetlands and creeks of Barmah-Millewa Forest, benefiting native vegetation and fish."