A warmer and drier summer is on the cards for central Victoria, following one of the driest springs on record.
The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting a high likelihood of warmer than average days across the north of the state.
The Summer Outlook also forecasts a high chance of less than average rainfall across Victoria.
"Most of the state is looking at drier than average conditions, with the odds at 70 or 80 per cent at being drier over much of the state," bureau long-range forecasting manager Dr Andrew Watkins said.
"Nights are also likely to be warmer in the western parts and central parts of the state."
Dr Watkins said a positive Indian Ocean dipole was one of the main drivers of the conditions.
"This refers to cooler than normal waters off Indonesia, which would reduce the amount of water coming into the atmosphere," he said. "But it also tends to park larger high pressure systems over Victoria.
"It reduces the fronts that come through and reduces the cloud cover in the summer period."
A negative southern annular mode would also contribute to the conditions, Dr Watkins said.
"That tends to push our weather systems north during the summer," he said. "We're looking at more westerly winds and more winds coming in off the ocean as well.
"This will keep it a little bit cooler in the far south, but into the north, we'll see some hotter days."
The bureau's early reports show Victoria this year experienced one of the five driest springs on record.
Days were also warmer than average for most of the state, with record hot spring weather late in November.
The hot and dry conditions led to a Code Red Day being declared for parts of north central Victoria last week.
More than 60 fires broke out across the state, including a 420-hectare fire north of Rochester.
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