PEOPLE must share thoughts on new flood plans, because without them authorities could miss chances to stop the Bendigo Creek bursting its banks, a community campaigner says.
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The City of Greater Bendigo wants people's thoughts on a new resilience plan for Golden Square and Kangaroo Flat amid predictions flooding deluges could rise.
Five people turned up to the first Kangaroo Flat public meeting held on flood mitigation at the start of the decade, Bendigo resident Max Turner recalls.
That meeting, held in the aftermath of the 2010 and 2011 floods that hit swathes of central Victoria, was one of the first steps towards the 2013 Bendigo Urban Flood Study.
The study changed the way insurance companies thought about properties along the creek, Mr Turner said.
One of his properties' premiums went up by $2500.
"Having said that, I shopped around with other insurance companies and came out with a quite satisfactory deal," he said.
"At the end of the day, some people were impacted by that study because they were shown to be suffering inundation (during flooding) and others who thought they would be suffering came out with a clean slate."
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The latest study is one of several smaller offshoots of the 2013 report, which are fine-tuning information about specific neighbourhoods along the Bendigo Creek.
It is similar to one that has taken place across Epsom, Huntly and Ascot.
Mr Turner has been intimately involved in that plan as a member of the Epsom Huntly Drainage Committee.
He says the latest plan for that area has not come with the kind of rises seen after the 2013 report.
So, how bad can flooding get in Kangaroo Flat and Golden Square?
People living near waterways in Golden Square and Kangaroo Flat have long witnessed damaging floods.
"Rising with characteristic suddenness, the Bendigo Creek overflowed its banks at both Kangaroo Flat and Golden Square, flooding some 100 houses in High Street and near the creek and (sic) a timber bridge was washed away," the 2013 study said of one downpour that hit in January, 1933.
A flood in 1949 left left one part of High Street, Golden Square four feet underwater, while heavy thunderstorms flooded shops and homes in Kangaroo Flat on New Year's Day, 1996, the report stated.
A front page Bendigo Advertiser story on the deluge describes water breaking banks and "careering" down High Street where the creek 'turns at the fire station in Golden Square".
The creek soon burst its banks in Bendigo's CBD, inundating shops.
But how likely are floods in Bendigo Creek, these days?
This decade has already seen a lot of work to predict where the Bendigo Creek might break its banks, particularly during so-called "one in 100 year floods".
Some properties around Kangaroo Flat could be swamped by up to 30cm of water, according to North Central Catchment Management Authority predictions.
People living near Crusoe Road would be worst hit, according to the authority's flood risk maps.
Properties on a stretch of the road spanning Jackson Street to the Calder Highway could see up to 30cm of water.
Flooding could also hit Mitchell Street, Kangaroo Flat and cause problems as far as Wesley Street, the maps suggest.
Lansell Square and the nearby Bendigo Homemaker Centre would stay high and dry, but some shops in Kangaroo Flat's CBD would be at risk.
They could include the Champions Supa IGA and others facing the Calder Highway. Properties behind the CBD could also see flooding, along with others in Neil Street.
On the other hand, much of the heaviest flooding would occur where it could not do too much damage.
More than 80cm might pool around the Station Street toilets, for example.
Much of the flooding predicted in Golden Square would also be on open land, but the back of some properties on MacDougall Road could be affected by as much as 20cm of water.
The roundabout at the Breen and Laurel Street intersection could be rendered impassable by water. So could part of Hattam Street, where a tributary of the Bendigo Creek passes.
Will global warming make floods worse?
Climate change could mean more thunderstorms big enough to flood creeks across Central Victoria, Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Peter Newham said.
"The current thoughts from our climatologists are that extreme weather events will become more common," he said.
"When we talk about independent events there are so many factors you need to take into account - the strength of a cold front, the humidity moving southwards and instability in the atmosphere - but it seems those ingredients are becoming more likely with climate change."
Forecasters can only start to predict the kind of 50mm deluges typical of creek flooding in the hours and days before such thunderstorms hit, Mr Newham said.
But typically thunderstorms typical of flash flooding hit as humidity builds at the height of summer, though they can happen at other times of year.
Weather observers can see another type of flooding - the kind that comes with steady rain that sometimes flood the Riverina
Those kinds of downpours are less likely over coming months, Mr Newham said.
The BOM is predicting a dryer than average three months to October for the region, with a less than 40 per cent chance of getting more than medium chances of rain.
How important is it that I have a say?
Your knowledge could help plan infrastructure to stop flooding, the council's presentations and assets director Debbie Wood said.
"We know flooding from Bendigo Creek and other waterways in this area isn't a topic people generally think about, but significant floods have occurred in the past, damaging property, roads and community assets," she said.
"The first step is to gather local information and ideas. We know there's a wealth of wisdom, knowledge and skill in the community and we're keen to hear from everyone on all angles, including interesting stories from past floods," she said.
Having a say should not be a one-off event, either, Mr Turner said.
People need to keep on councils and water catchment authorities to make sure changes in a different part of the creek do not leave them exposed, he said.
"Even though the process in Epsom, Huntly and Ascot is largely completed, it's important to note that its still a living document and it needs to be updated as time goes by," Mr Turner said.
There are still people who have concerns about the accuracy of maps designed to predict floods in the area, he said, and planning authorities acknowledge they may need to make changes as new information becomes available.
Residents can have their say on Kangaroo Flat and Golden Square by completing a survey, attending community discussions or having a chat at various listening posts in the area.
The first community discussion will take place at 5.30 to 7.30pm Thursday September 5, at the Gateway Function Centre, 26 High St, Kangaroo Flat.
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