The report shows there is only a 34 per cent chance Bendigo will receive more than the median rainfall of 142 millimetres from August to October.

The outlook is much the same for most of the region, although the chances of receiving a little more rain are slightly higher in the north.

Castlemaine is unlikely to see more than 192 millimetres, its median for the three-month period, and Maryborough can also expect a drier few months.

Related: Warning of damaging winds for parts of central Victoria

Meanwhile, it is likely Bendigo will experience warmer days and nights than usual over the three months.

The city's median maximum temperature over that time period is 17.2 degrees, while the median low is 5.5 degrees.

But that does not mean winter's coming to a close just yet - the drier conditions mean an increased chance of frosts.

Maryborough and Castlemaine, too, are likely to be warmer.

In Echuca, it is very likely the three-month median maximum temperature will be exceeded.

Senior climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio said the Indian Ocean was the dominant influence.

Models suggested a positive Indian Ocean Dipole over spring, she said, which was associated with drier conditions in Australia.

So far this month, Bendigo has received 24.6 millimetres of rain.

July is typically the city's wettest month, with a median rainfall of 59.2 millimetres.

But last month brought almost 70 millimetres of rain - well above the median of 47.6 millimetres.

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