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THE Bendigo Football-Netball League senior season is now more than 50 games old and still lacking any genuine upset results.
Results like last weekend in the Loddon Valley league where not only were the top two teams (Mitiamo and Pyramid Hill) beaten on the same day, but a pair of teams that were sitting in the top five (Pyramid Hill and Bridgewater) were defeated by two of those out of it (Marong and Calivil United).
It has been apparent from early in the season that there was going to be two tiers of teams in the BFNL - Strathfieldsaye, Gisborne, Golden Square, Eaglehawk and Sandhurst as the five tier one sides September-bound; Maryborough, Kyneton, South Bendigo, Kangaroo Flat and Castlemaine tier two.
After 11 rounds the tier one sides have a combined tally of 43 wins and overall percentage of 976.2; the five tier two sides just 12 wins and percentage of 272.2.
The BFNL is now into its fourth year of its player points system and salary cap introduced state-wide by AFL Victoria in 2016, which alongside the aims of "stopping the inflationary nature of player payments by discouraging the movement of players and promoting player loyalty and junior development" is to equalise competitions.
While there are always going to be teams at either end of the spectrum, in year four of AFL Victoria's Community Club Sustainability Program the gulf between the BFNL's top five and bottom five sides is widening, which is making for a season marred by blowout results.
In 31 games this year where a top-five side has played a bottom-five side, the ledger is 31-0 in favour of the top-five side with an average margin of 93.4 points.
Of those 31 games, only Maryborough (lost to Eaglehawk by 16), South Bendigo (lost to Sandhurst by 17) and Kyneton (lost to Sandhurst by 28) have got within 40 points of their top-five opponents - and the gap only seems to be getting bigger the longer the season wears on in what's a worrying trend for the league ahead of this weekend's resumption.
The average margin across the past 13 top five v bottom five match-ups between rounds seven and 11 has ballooned to 111 points, with four times where a side - Castlemaine (1.2 v Strathfieldsaye); Kyneton (1.9 v Eaglehawk); Castlemaine (0.1 v Gisborne) and Kyneton (0.1 v Gisborne) - has been held to one goal or less.
Such has been the gulf that exists, across the season as a whole bottom five sides have won just 13 of the combined 124 quarters they have played against top five teams, with there still another 25 of these match-ups to come over the remaining 35 games of the 2019 home and away season.
The two tiers of teams this year have made for three categories of matches: top five v top five; bottom five v bottom five; and top five v bottom five.
Clashes of two top-five teams, in which there have been 12, have been decided by an average of 27.4 points and all teams have at least one win against a fellow top five rival, headed by Strathfieldsaye's 5-1 record.
In the 12 games where two bottom five teams have played the average margin has been 36.8 points, with Maryborough (5-1) heading the ladder pitting those sides against each other.
That shows a massive step in the right direction for the Magpies, who after winning just two games over the past four years are now proving to be the "best of the rest" behind the five September-bound teams in what's a major credit to the work of outgoing coach Ben Lavars.
Recent history shows that the BFNL ladder after 11 rounds has one change to the top five come the end of round 18 - 2018 (Golden Square out, Gisborne in); 2017 (South Bendigo out, Kyneton in); 2016: (Kangaroo Flat out, Kyneton in); 2015 (Kangaroo Flat out, Kyneton in); 2014 (Kangaroo Flat out, Eaglehawk in); and 2013 (South Bendigo out, Sandhurst in).
This year, though, that trend looks set to be bucked given the two-game and 67 per cent buffer that exists between fifth-placed Sandhurst and Maryborough in sixth.
Hopefully, though, a bottom five side can provide a banana skin or two for a top five team to slip on and a major upset that goes against the script and creates talking points like there was in the LVFNL last Saturday can also happen for the BFNL at some stage in the remaining seven rounds... even just once.
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* BFNL season results breakdown:
TOP 5 v TOP 5 (12 games)
AVERAGE MARGIN - 27.4 points
* Rd 1 - Strathfieldsaye 14.14 (98) def Eaglehawk 8.12 (60)
Margin - 38 points
* Rd 2 - Strathfieldsaye 12.17 (89) def Sandhurst 6.7 (43)
Margin - 46 points
* Rd 3 - Strathfieldsaye 22.11 (143) def Golden Square 12.5 (77)
Margin - 66 points
* Rd 4 - Strathfieldsaye 14.12 (96) def Gisborne 10.15 (75)
Margin - 21 points
* Rd 5 - Eaglehawk 14.13 (97) def Sandhurst 11.11 (77)
Margin - 20 points
* Rd 6 - Golden Square 11.15 (81) def Eaglehawk 10.11 (71)
Margin - 10 points
* Rd 7 - Gisborne 17.23 (125) def Eaglehawk 15.5 (95)
Margin - 30 points
* Rd 7 - Sandhurst 10.6 (66) def Golden Square 8.17 (65)
Margin - 1 point
* Rd 8 - Gisborne 14.20 (104) def Sandhurst 12.6 (78)
Margin - 26 points
* Rd 9 - Golden Square 8.15 (63) def Gisborne 4.8 (32)
Margin - 31 points
* Rd 10 - Eaglehawk 14.14 (98) def Strathfieldsaye 11.14 (80)
Margin - 18 points
* Rd 11 - Strathfieldsaye 5.13 (43) def Sandhurst 3.3 (21)
Margin - 22 points
BOTTOM 5 v BOTTOM 5 (12 games)
AVERAGE MARGIN - 36.8 points
* Rd 1 - South Bendigo 14.13 (97) def Maryborough 9.11 (65)
Margin - 32 points
* Rd 2 - Maryborough 12.7 (79) def Castlemaine 9.10 (64)
Margin - 15 points
* Rd 3 - Kyneton 17.14 (116) def Castlemaine 6.15 (51)
Margin - 65 points
* Rd 4 - Kyneton 12.12 (84) def Kangaroo Flat 8.9 (57)
Margin - 27 points
* Rd 5 - Kangaroo Flat 10.15 (75) def Castlemaine 3.7 (25)
Margin - 50 points
* Rd 6 - Kyneton 14.13 (97) def South Bendigo 13.14 (92)
Margin - 5 points
* Rd 7 - Maryborough 13.18 (96) def Kyneton 8.10 (58)
Margin - 38 points
* Rd 7 - Kangaroo Flat 15.7 (97) def South Bendigo 12.13 (85)
Margin - 12 points
* Rd 8 - Maryborough 17.16 (118) def Kangaroo Flat 13.10 (88)
Margin - 30 points
* Rd 9 - South Bendigo 21.24 (150) def Castlemaine 7.11 (53)
Margin - 97 points
* Rd 10 - Maryborough 15.11 (101) def South Bendigo 12.15 (87)
Margin - 14 points
* Rd 11 - Maryborough 11.15 (81) def Castlemaine 3.6 (24)
Margin - 57 points
TOP 5 v BOTTOM 5 (31 games)
AVERAGE MARGIN - 93.4 points
* Rd 1 - Gisborne 17.20 (122) def Castlemaine 3.11 (29)
Margin - 93 points
* Rd 1 - Sandhurst 15.12 (102) def Kangaroo Flat 3.11 (29)
Margin - 73 points
* Rd 1 - Golden Square 17.14 (116) def Kyneton 11.7 (73)
Margin - 43 points
* Rd 2 - Gisborne 21.20 (146) def Kyneton 7.9 (51)
Margin - 95 points
* Rd 2 - Eaglehawk 18.17 (125) def South Bendigo 7.6 (48)
Margin - 77 points
* Rd 2 - Golden Square 14.23 (107) def Kangaroo Flat 4.11 (35)
Margin - 72 points
* Rd 3 - Gisborne 21.16 (142) def Kangaroo Flat 8.5 (53)
Margin - 89 points
* Rd 3 - Sandhurst 12.9 (81) def South Bendigo 9.10 (64)
Margin - 17 points
* Rd 3 - Eaglehawk 17.14 (116) def Maryborough 15.10 (100)
Margin - 16 points
* Rd 4 - Eaglehawk 23.16 (154) def Castlemaine 5.3 (33)
Margin - 121 points
* Rd 4 - Golden Square 17.10 (112) def South Bendigo 7.9 (51)
Margin - 61 points
* Rd 4 - Sandhurst 14.18 (102) def Maryborough 9.3 (57)
Margin - 45 points
* Rd 5 - Strathfieldsaye 23.24 (162) def Kyneton 4.4 (28)
Margin - 134 points
* Rd 5 - Golden Square 25.17 (167) def Maryborough 8.6 (54)
Margin - 113 points
* Rd 5 - Gisborne 25.18 (168) def South Bendigo 11.5 (71)
Margin - 97 points
* Rd 6 - Gisborne 24.16 (160) def Maryborough 7.6 (48)
Margin - 112 points
* Rd 6 - Sandhurst 22.13 (145) def Castlemaine 5.10 (40)
Margin - 105 points
* Rd 6 - Strathfieldsaye 20.15 (135) def Kangaroo Flat 8.11 (59)
Margin - 86 points
* Rd 7 - Strathfieldsaye 35.20 (230) def Castlemaine 1.2 (8)
Margin - 222 points
* Rd 8 - Strathfieldsaye 26.16 (172) def South Bendigo 4.6 (30)
Margin - 142 points
* Rd 8 - Eaglehawk 21.14 (140) def Kyneton 1.9 (15)
Margin - 125 points
* Rd 8 - Golden Square 19.22 (136) def Castlemaine 6.3 (39)
Margin - 97 points
* Rd 9 - Strathfieldsaye 29.16 (190) def Maryborough 6.10 (46)
Margin - 144 points
* Rd 9 - Eaglehawk 22.19 (151) def Kangaroo Flat 8.10 (58)
Margin - 93 points
* Rd 9 - Sandhurst 14.11 (95) def Kyneton 10.7 (67)
Margin - 28 points
* Rd 10 - Gisborne 29.20 (194) def Castlemaine 0.1 (1)
Margin - 193 points
* Rd 10 - Sandhurst 23.18 (156) def Kangaroo Flat 5.2 (32)
Margin - 124 points
* Rd 10 - Golden Square 19.15 (129) def Kyneton 4.3 (27)
Margin - 102 points
* Rd 11 - Gisborne 9.15 (69) def Kyneton 0.1 (1)
Margin - 68 points
* Rd 11 - Eaglehawk 15.15 (105) def South Bendigo 6.5 (41)
Margin - 64 points
* Rd 11 - Golden Square 10.19 (79) def Kangaroo Flat 3.8 (26)
Margin - 53 points
CATEGORY LADDERS:
TOP 5 v TOP 5
STRATHFIELDSAYE
Record - 5-1, 146.7%
Avg for/agst - 91/62
Quarters won - 16 of 24
GISBORNE
Record - 2-2, 101.2%
Avg for/agst - 84/83
Quarters won - 10 of 16
GOLDEN SQUARE
Record - 2-2, 91.0%
Avg for/agst - 71/78
Quarters won - 7 of 16
EAGLEHAWK
Record - 2-3, 91.3%
Avg for/agst - 84/92
Quarters won - 9 of 20
SANDHURST
Record - 1-4, 72.1%
Avg for/agst - 57/79
Quarters won - 6 of 20
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BOTTOM 5 v BOTTOM 5
MARYBOROUGH
Record - 5-1, 121.6%
Avg for/agst - 90/74
Quarters won - 15 of 24
KYNETON
Record - 3-1, 118.9%
Avg for/agst - 88/74
Quarters won - 10 of 16
SOUTH BENDIGO
Record - 2-3, 124.3%
Avg for/agst - 102/82
Quarters won - 12 of 20
KANGAROO FLAT
Record - 2-2, 101.2%
Avg for/agst - 79/78
Quarters won - 8 of 16
CASTLEMAINE
Record - 0-5, 43.0%
Avg for/agst - 43/100
Quarters won - 3 of 20
.......................................
TOP 5 v BOTTOM 5
GISBORNE
Record - 7-0, 397.2%
Avg for/agst - 143/36
Quarters won - 26 of 28
GOLDEN SQUARE
Record - 7-0, 279.0%
Avg for/agst - 120/43
Quarters won - 26 of 28
EAGLEHAWK
Record - 6-0, 267.3%
Avg for/agst - 131/49
Quarters won - 20 of 24
SANDHURST
Record - 6-0, 235.4%
Avg for/agst - 113/48
Quarters won - 18 of 24
STRATHFIELDSAYE
Record - 5-0, 520.5%
Avg for/agst - 177/34
Quarters won - 19 of 20
MARYBOROUGH
Record - 0-5, 41.4%
Avg for/agst - 61/147
Quarters won - 4 of 20
SOUTH BENDIGO
Record - 0-6, 39.3%
Avg for/agst - 50/127
Quarters won - 3 of 24
KANGAROO FLAT
Record - 0-7, 33.0%
Avg for/agst - 41/124
Quarters won - 3 of 28
KYNETON
Record - 0-7, 30.3%
Avg for/agst - 37/122
Quarters won - 2 of 28
CASTLEMAINE
Record - 0-6, 15.3%
Avg for/agst - 25/163
Quarters won - 1 of 24
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