WINTER is likely to be warmer and drier than average, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
And this autumn is likely to be one of Australia's five warmest on record.
Bendigo has an 85 per cent chance of exceeding its average top temperature of 13.2 degrees this winter, and a 75 per cent chance of rising above its average minimum of 4.1 degrees.
The statistics are similar for Maryborough, Castlemaine, Echuca and Daylesford.
The bureau's long-range forecasting manager, Dr Andrew Watkins said the odds of daytime temperatures in Victoria this winter being warmer than average were "quite high".
"Minimum temperatures or overnight temperatures are also looking warmer than average, but we are expecting more high-pressure systems over the state," he said.
"We need to be careful there because that will bring an increase risk of frost at times, particularly those inland areas with drier soils."
Dr Watkins said conditions were also likely to be drier than average, particularly north of the divide.
Bendigo has a 32 per cent chance of exceeding its average rainfall for winter, which is 151mm.
The bureau believes the city is certain to get at least 50mm, but has a 68 per cent chance of receiving 100mm of rainfall, and a 34 per cent chance of 150mm.
Castlemaine has a 32 per cent chance of exceeding its median rainfall of 205mm, and Maryborough is similarly unlikely to top 147mm of rain.
Echuca is expected to be drier still, with only a 29 per cent chance of receiving more than its 114mm average of rain.
"The [Victorian] outlook is really based upon what's happening in the Pacific Ocean, which is the El Nino, which is looking like it will start to fade away over the coming months, and also what's happening out in the Indian Ocean," Dr Watkins said.
The bureau is expecting a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to form in June.
"That typically brings drier and warmer conditions through winter and often into spring as well for southeastern Australia," Dr Watkins said.
"So, certainly looking drier and warmer as a result of what's happening in the Indian and the Pacific oceans."
He said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole was also associated with shorter snow seasons and less depth.
"I probably wouldn't be going too early or too late," Dr Watkins said.
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Autumn has yet to officially end, but the long-range forecasting manager said the season had been very warm for much of the state.
"In terms of rainfall it has generally been dry across the western part of the state and also into western Gippsland, as well," Dr Watkins said.
"Those areas have been dry for quite some time now, so unfortunately continuing that warm and dry pattern in those areas."
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