A swing of 5.36 per cent away from the Liberal Party has been recorded in the Bendigo electorate with more than 80 per cent of votes counted.
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Federal Liberal candidate Sam Gayed has 40.77 per cent of the vote on a two-candidate preferred basis to Labor's Lisa Chesters' 59.23 per cent.
The Liberal Party lost preferred-party status at 20 per cent of Bendigo voting booths as voters flocked to Labor.
There were just four of 58 booths across the Bendigo electorate in which the party won a majority once preferences had been distributed, according to data from the Australian Electoral Commission.
All were rural or semi-rural and to the west of Bendigo.
The Liberals just held onto Goornong, with 50.7 per cent of the vote. Three ballots separated the party from Labor in the seat of 333 voters.
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ZOOM IN: Blue shows booths where the Liberals won a majority of the two-party preferred vote, red shows Labor's. Zoom in to your booth, and click on the tag to find out where the votes went.
Liberal losses on Bendigo's outskirts
The Liberals saw a 7.02 per cent drop in Elmore but held the booth comfortably with 59.24 per cent of the vote.
Redesdale held steady with a swing against the Liberals of 2.33 per cent, while the party had a 0.89 per cent gain in Axedale.
The Liberals lost 12 booths they held at the 2016 election, including rapidly growing suburbs like Huntly, Strathfieldsaye and Maiden Gully.
The party also lost eight semi-rural and rural seats, including:
- Eppalock
- Junortoun
- Lockwood
- Mandurang
- Marong
- Newham
- Raywood
- Tyldon
At least some of that change could be because of demographic changes in some booths, La Trobe University honourary associate Ian Tulloch said.
He had noticed traditionally conservative Mandurang had gone to Labor at last year's state election too.
Labor won the booth of 559 voters by 39 votes on Saturday, likely with the help of some younger and wealthier people who had recently moved into the area.
The party also lost Strathdale, where 60 votes - or 9.46 per cent - swung the booth to Labor's Lisa Chesters.
The wider electorate's swing to Labor was at least partly explained by a statewide swing, Mr Tulloch said.
But the size of Bendigo's swing could also be explained by the Liberal Party's campaign, he said.
Candidate Sam Gayed had got into the campaign with only two-and-a-half months to go, was relatively unknown and struggled to get attention, Mr Tulloch said.
A lack of Liberal infrastructure promises may also have played a part in driving up the Labor vote across the electorate, he said.
One Nation, United Australia Party's vote increase in Eaglehawk, Bendigo's north
Four minor parties contested the seat of Bendigo but it was One Nation candidate Vaughan Williams who polled highest in many booths across the electorate.
His voters were among their most numerous in the city's northern suburbs, Mr Tulloch said.
One Nation won about 10 per cent of the vote at booths in Eaglehawk, California Gully and Huntly.
It also performed well in suburbs south and west of the CBD, like Golden Square and Lockwood, but less well in areas like Spring Gully, where their vote was 2.77 per cent.
Clive Palmer's United Australia Party took in the second highest number of votes, among populist and right-wing minor parties.
It took 4.36 per cent of the electorate's vote.
The right-wing Rise Up Australia Party and Fraser Anning's Conservative National Party both attracted less than two per cent of the vote.
Typically, the United Australia Party came in behind One Nation, but lead the Rise Up Australia Party and
While the number of people voting for populist or right-wing minor parties had increased at many booths across Bendigo, it did not appear voters there had followed many of those group's how to vote cards.
The parties had asked electors to preference the Liberals ahead of Labor, but Ms Chesters increased her share of the vote in most areas where One Nation and UAP had a higher influence.
That included a swing 8.07 per cent swing in Huntly, as well as a marginal increase of 1.72 per cent in Eaglehawk and 3.82 in California Gully.
Greens vote stays the same in election of Adani and climate change
The Greens' vote stayed the same across Bendigo in 2019 at 10.81 per cent, which surprised Mr Tulloch.
"That vote held up, on average, but I would have thought it would be higher considering issues like Adani and the environment would have been at the top of many people's minds," Mr Tulloch said.
"But maybe those issues are a reflection of the fact all Greens senators appear to have been reelected, which I did not think would happen."
Instability that had rocked the Victorian Greens in recent times appeared not to have adversely affected the vote, he said.
The party's vote was strongest in areas south of the electorate.
Candidate Robert Holian took 28.21 per cent of the vote at the Castlemaine booth on Saturday and 28.21 per cent of those cast at the town's pre-poll voting centre.
The party also had strong showings in Guildford, and Castlemaine north.
Greens preferences and drops in the Liberal party's primary vote help drive up Labor's vote.
A 10 per cent swing at Castlemaine North drove the Labor two-party preferred vote to 82.92 per cent, with similar swings at booths including Castlemaine, Guildford and Taradale.
How the record pre-poll vote unfolded
Bendigo and Castlemaine saw record pre-poll voting in 2019.
Just over a third of the electorate's eligible voters decided to cast their votes early - 39,636 people over all, up from 24,867 in 2016.
Bendigo's Mitchell Street booth was the busiest, with 21,026 people through the door, followed by Golden Square's booth with 15,043. The booths reflected the wider swing to Labor. Lisa Chesters increased her two-party preferred vote at both booths by about five per cent.
It was a different story at Castlemaine's pre-poll booth. There, 3567 voters delivered Labor 68.86 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, likely because of the higher numbers of Green voters in the area.
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