Bureau of Meteorology warns more warmer than average temperatures on the way in autumn

The Bureau's 2019 Autumn Outlook showed Bendigo was very likely to exceed its average autumn maximum temperature of 21.3 degrees Celsius. 

The city was also likely to exceed its average minimum of 8.8 degrees. 

"We've seen this warming trend in the Australian climate," Bureau climatologist Catherine Ganter said.

"We're looking at a drier than average autumn in Bendigo and its surrounds, as is the case for most of Victoria."

The state had its warmest summer on record, with average temperatures 2.54 degrees warmer than the long-term summer average. 

Read more: Bendigo vulnerable to heat, climate change, as city to lose tree cover

Records were also broken, with Bendigo hitting 45.9 degrees on January 25 to edge out its previous warmest day, Black Saturday in 2009. 

Castlemaine also rewrote the record books in January, hitting temperatures 1.1 degrees warmer than the previous record from February 7, 2009. 

Bureau climatologist Dr Lynette Bettio said the heatwave events during December and January played a major role in the recent summer being the warmest on record.

"The heat we saw this summer was unprecedented," she said. "There was a noticeable absence of strong cold fronts that would normally bring relief during summer."

Rainfall was also lower than usual from December through to February, with summer rainfall 12 per cent below the long-term summer average across the state.

But rainfall was above average in parts of Victoria's north after a month's worth of rain, strong winds, and severe thunderstorms hit the state on December 14.

Read more: How Bendigo residents beat a week of extreme heat | Photos

St Arnaud totaled 86.6 mm to beat its 1957 record of 77.2 mm, while Charlton also recorded 93 mm, toppling its previous record of 77 mm from February 1973.

The average rainfall for autumn in Bendigo is 95 mm, but the Bureau's manager of long-range forecasting Dr Andrew Watkins said the city was unlikely to exceed that number in the coming months.

"Unfortunately, the outlook isn't giving a strong indication that we'll see a return to average or above average rainfall in many areas over the autumn period," he said. 

But Dr Watkins said there was room for error. 

"Autumn is obviously a critical time of year for agriculture" he said. "It's important to remember that despite what the outlook is suggesting, individual heavy rainfall events are always possible."

"People should stay up to date with the latest seven-day forecast and warnings for their area," he said. 

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