With five rounds remaining in the Bendigo District Cricket Association we are heading for a fascinating tussle for semi-final berths.
In the past five seasons, only one team – Eaglehawk in 2014-15 - has qualified for the finals with less than 45 points at the end of the home and away season.
In 2013-14, White Hills missed the finals despite having 51 points in the bank.
Using 48 points as the minimum number required to give yourself a chance of making the top four this summer, eight of the 10 teams still have an opportunity to play finals.
Realistically, when you look at the run home of each BDCA club, it might be just five teams battling for four semi-final places.
1. GOLDEN SQUARE
Points: 39
Percentage: 1.49
Run home: Kangaroo Flat (a)
Sandhurst (h)
Kangaroo Flat (h)
White Hills (a)
Bendigo (a)
Summary: Deserved premiership favourites at the Christmas break. Appear to have all bases covered with bat and ball.
Probably only need to win three of their final five matches to lock away a home semi-final. It would be a major surprise if they didn’t achieve that.
Prediction: Lock the Dogs in for top two.
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2. SANDHURST
Points: 36
Percentage: 1.11
Run home: White Hills (a)
Golden Square (a)
Bendigo United (h)
Huntly-North Epsom (h)
Eaglehawk (a)
Summary: The Dragons will start warm favourites against White Hills and Bendigo United, so their top two hopes will hinge on how well they play against Square, Huntly and Eaglehawk.
A 2-1 split in those latter three games should be enough to grab a home final.
Prediction: Top four certainties, with the final round match against the Borough to potentially determine a top two place.
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3. HUNTLY-NORTH EPSOM
Points: 34
Percentage: 1.26
Run home: Strathdale-Maristians (a)
White Hills (h)
Strathdale-Maristians (a)
Sandhurst (a)
Bendigo United (a)
Summary: Five-straight wins have catapulted the Power into semi-final calculations.
Sandhurst is the only top four team the Power play after the Christmas break. The two clashes with fifth-placed Strathdale will determine their fate.
Prediction: Can the Power maintain their momentum now that the expectations are greater? They might get squeezed out of the four.
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4. EAGLEHAWK
Points: 31
Percentage: 1.04
Run home: Bendigo (a)
Bendigo United (h)
Bendigo (h)
Kangaroo Flat (a)
Sandhurst (h)
Summary: The Hawks have gone off the boil recently with just one win from their past four matches.
The positive for the Hawks is their run home – just one game against a club in the top six. A 4-1 split would give the Hawks 55 points and a likely semi-final berth.
Prediction: Batting still a problem for the enigmatic Hawks, but they should finish third or fourth.
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5. STRATHDALE-MARISTIANS
Points: 24
Percentage: 1.15
Run home: Huntly-North Epsom (h)
Kangaroo Flat (a)
Huntly-North Epsom (h)
Strathfieldsaye (a)
White Hills (h)
Summary: The Suns have little margin for error if they’re to make the top four.
Might need a 5-0 run – which is quite conceivable – to keep their destiny in their own hands. The one-day clash with Huntly on January 12 is huge.
Prediction: The Suns are probably the one team that the top few clubs on the ladder don’t want to see qualify for finals.
They’ll need everything to go right to make the finals, but they have the class and experience to get there.
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6. WHITE HILLS
Points: 24
Percentage: 0.96
Run home: Sandhurst (h)
Huntly-North Epsom (a)
Strathfieldsaye (h)
Golden Square (h)
Strathdale-Maristians (a)
Summary: The Demons have played some good cricket to give themselves a chance of playing finals.
The improvement in seam up specialist Tom Schultz and young batsman Caleb Barras has been a good sign for White Hills.
The negative for the Demons is they have a very tough run home.
Prediction: Hard to see the Dees playing finals this summer.
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7. KANGAROO FLAT
Points: 24
Percentage: 0.96
Run home: Golden Square (h)
Strathdale-Maristians (h)
Golden Square (a)
Eaglehawk (h)
Strathfieldsaye (a)
Summary: Similar tale to White Hills – need to win at least four of five games and have a daunting run home.
The Roos’ best cricket is good enough, but they haven’t shown it enough so far this season.
Prediction: No finals for the Roos, but they’ll play a part in shaping the top four.
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8. STRATHFIELDSAYE
Points: 21
Percentage: 0.89
Run home: Bendigo United (h)
Bendigo (a)
White Hills (a)
Strathdale-Maristians (h)
Kangaroo Flat (h)
Summary: You could mount a minor case for the Jets unleashing a 5-0 run to end the season and forcing their way into the top four, but it appears most unlikely.
Prediction: No finals, but the Jets will continue to blood their young players and build towards a bright future.
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9. BENDIGO
Points: 15
Percentage: 0.94
Run home: Eaglehawk (a)
Strathfieldsaye (h)
Eaglehawk (a)
Bendigo United (h)
Golden Square (h)
Summary: Clearly the most disappointing team of the comeptition.
Hard to believe that a team with that much talent on paper has just two wins from eight matches.
Prediction: The Goers are playing for pride in their 125th year celebrations. They could upset Eaglehawk’s finals hopes.
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10. BENDIGO UNITED
Points: 0
Percentage: 0.61
Run home: Strathfieldsaye (a)
Eaglehawk (a)
Sandhurst (a)
Bendigo (a)
Huntly-North Epsom (h)
Summary: The Redbacks are winless, but they’ve put in some credible performances, particularly with the bat.
No home games in January or February doesn’t make life any easier for the Redbacks either.
Prediction: The Redbacks will win at least one game by the end of the summer.
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