The voters of Wentworth, represented by the Liberals and their predecessors for more than a century, have rejected the Liberal candidate and elected high-profile independent Dr Kerryn Phelps.
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The swing in the Wentworth byelection was the largest in Australian electoral history, at 19 per cent. The sacking of Malcolm Turnbull, led by the forces behind Peter Dutton, has now been tested at the ballot box and proved disastrous.
Turnbull’s dismissal by his party has clearly angered a large proportion of voters who had been rusted on Liberal voters. How else can we account for such a massive swing?
It is not, however, just the deposing of Turnbull that caused many voters in Wentworth to cast their votes elsewhere, but several key policy positions of the Morrison government.
Important, is the backlash to the Ruddock-led inquiry into so-called religious freedoms. Originally meant to placate the conservative religious establishment, the report, once leaked to the Fairfax media, created a maelstrom. Morrison was initially resolute: arguing that current (state) laws allowed religious institutions to discriminate. Days later he panicked, and under pressure from Labor agreed to legislate to ban religious schools from discriminating on the basis of a student’s sexuality. This damaged the Liberal cause in Wentworth.
Then there is the climate change issue. When Dave Sharma simply parroted the party line on climate change, he not only alienated many wavering Liberal voters but lost their trust.
The continued detention and appalling treatment of asylum seekers on Manus Island and Nauru was also a major concern in Wentworth.
Finally, the desperate foreign policy change on Australia’s embassy in Israel, midweek, achieved nothing. Wentworth’s orthodox Jews had already voted pre-poll because Saturday is their sabbath.
Morrison now leads a minority government. He is at the mercy of the cross-bench.
Political attention now shifts to Victoria. A Labor win there will compound the Morrison government’s problems and – if this eventuates – the New South Wales election in March, will be the final test for the Coalition before the expected May federal election.
The historic loss of this iconic blue-ribbon seat, and potential bad results in Victoria and NSW, mean that no amount of praying will save the Morrison government in May next year.
Ian Tulloch is Honorary Associate (Politics) at La Trobe University, Bendigo.
