History says Strathfieldsaye. Momentum and recent form says Sandhurst.
Whichever way you look at it, Saturday's BFNL preliminary final between the Storm and the Dragons has the potential to be a classic.
The minor premier Storm hardly put a foot wrong in the home and away season, but one poor performance in the second semi-final against Eaglehawk has those outside of the Strathfieldsaye inner sanctum doubting their premiership credentials all of a sudden.
The absence of injured star forward Lachlan Sharp (broken leg) and the ongoing fitness doubts surrounding key playmaker Kallen Geary (quad) has hurt the Storm.
They sorely missed Geary's creativity and running power against Eaglehawk, while you can't replace someone of Sharp's class in front of goals.
Geary has been named to play on Saturday, while the Storm have also included Bendigo Pioneer Hunter Lawrence in a bid to bolster its running game.
The Storm are trying to avoid joining the Maryborough teams of 1996 and 1997 as the only minor premiers to not qualify for the grand final under the final five system.
In 1996, Maryborough lost the second semi-final to Kyneton by 31 points and the preliminary final to Kangaroo Flat by 109 points.
The following season, the Magpies went down by three points to Kyneton in the second semi-final and by one point to Golden Square in the preliminary final.
Strathfieldsaye and Sandhurst have developed a strong rivalry in the past five years, but when it comes to September action it’s the Storm who have dominated.
Strathfieldsaye has a 4-0 record in finals matches against Sandhurst, including two grand final victories.
While history favous the minor premier advancing to the grand final, Sandhurst will need to defy history if it's to take on Eaglehawk in the grand final.
Golden Square in 2008 was the last team to make the grand final from the elimination final.
The 2001, 1997 and 1992 Golden Square teams are the only other teams since 1983 to advance from the elimination final to the grand final.
In the Dragons' favour this year is they're playing their best football at the right time of the season.
While most teams that advance from the elimination final to the preliminary final get to the last three and are physically and mentally drained, the Dragons are in good shape.
The elimination final victory against Gisborne was a bruising encounter, but the first semi-final win over Kyneton was, at times, little more than a training run.
Sandhurst also has a last-start win over Strathfieldsaye - the Dragons defeated the Storm by 46 points in round 13.
However, the Storm were depleted that day.
Sandhurst does have its own selection headaches.
Former Richmond player Daniel Connors hasn’t played since injuring his hamstring in the final round.
He trained on Thursday night and was named in the squad, but do the Dragons risk him when their forward line has functioned well in the past two finals?
Midfielder Zac East was also added to the squad after missing the first semi-final because of a knee injury.
If Connors and East play on Saturday, two Sandhurst senior players will be very unlucky to miss out after doing very little wrong against the Tigers last week.
Saturday’s game starts at 3.10pm at the QEO.
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