As Mozo property expert Steve Jovcevski predicts a lacklustre season for the Melbourne and Sydney real estate markets he envisions more strong growth in regional Victorian towns like Bendigo and Ballarat.

He says Bendigo’s affordability compared to Melbourne and state government budget spends on infrastructure and upgrades will also underpin property price growth.

Mr Jovcevski believes there will be a six per cent decrease in Melbourne prices over spring and he is not the only one predicting bumpy conditions ahead.

A new CoreLogic report has found national house values have dropped for the 11^th consecutive month.

The report foreshadowed “wildcards” that could create headwinds for housing markets, including a tighter credit environment, especially among investors.

Fewer active buyers has lead to slower sales and reduced competition in the market, according to CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless.

“Collectively, these factors have been compounded by affordability challenges, reduced foreign investment and a rise in housing supply,” he said.

Related: Strong Bendigo property market expected as busy spring season arrives

Uncertainty over the date of the federal election and the recent leadership spill could also dampen consumer and business confidence, with the report noting that housing was one of the biggest decisions people could make.

“A dent to confidence could place further downward pressure on market activity,” it warned.

The report also noted the first of the big four banks would lift variable interest rates from September, which it said was likely to send a chill through the housing market.

Related: Prime minister says softening housing market is ‘welcome’

However, regional Victoria was seeing an increase in house values.

Geelong remained the best performing regional market in the country, according to CoreLogic, with an 11 per cent rise in house values over 12 months. Ballarat could boast the fourth highest with a 7.1 per cent rise.

“This strong growth will continue in the second half of 2018 in rural Victoria and will continue to outperform Melbourne and Sydney,” Mozo’s Steve Jovcevski said.

Select Property Group’s Maureen Hosking said Bendigo had been strong in the past six weeks, particularly as rural properties came onto the market while paddocks were still green.

“I think Bendigo has been holding its own, but then again we didn’t have the over-inflated property prices that Melbourne has had,” she said.

She was expecting a good spring, particularly for properties under $500,000.

“The listings we are getting at the moment are selling very quickly. There seems to be more buyers than there are properties,” Ms Hosking said.

She said more people were moving from Melbourne, with the town especially attractive to retirees looking for cheaper homes in Bendigo.

“They can come here and by a new or nearly new property and still have half their money left over. So Bendigo is very attractive, particularly to retirees,” Ms Hosking said.

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