A uniform swing of four per cent against the government could see it lose as many as 20 seats, giving the Labor Party a huge majority in the next parliament.

Mr Tulloch said the only way to end the instability that has plagued federal politics since 2010 was to have a government with a large majority.

“If a government has a 15 seat majority, they would be unassailable and this instability would be over,” he said.

“Gillard was just hanging in during her prime ministership. Turnbull has a one-seat majority.

“The instability is the result of very narrow victories.”

There are 10 marginal seats in Queensland, four in Victoria and four in New South Wales.

Peter Dutton’s electorate of Dickson is among the most marginal, and he remains at risk of losing his own seat at the next election.

A large amount of young voters have also registered for the first time as a result of the marriage equality plebiscite.

Mr Tulloch said Dutton could go to an early election to try to limit the damage to the Liberal Party, or change policies and try to fight a long campaign.

He said neither option was likely to result in a Coalition victory.

“In Queensland, he has a lot of support, but not as much support in Victoria and New South Wales, and even southeast Queensland,” Mr Tulloch said.

“It might go down well in parts of Queensland, but it won’t go down well in Victoria or New South Wales.

“Since 2016, a lot of new voters have come on board. These are mostly young, first-time voters.

“I don’t think Dutton’s extreme right-wing views on things like immigration are going to go down well with these voters.”

Dutton appears to have the numbers to topple Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, meaning Dutton would be the prime minister by the end of today.

Bendigo creative writing and editing teacher Peter Wiseman was a Liberal Party member until Turnbull replaced Tony Abbott as prime minister.

Mr Wiseman said the party needed to focus on policy over personality.

“MPs are not removing their support from Turnbull because they don’t like him personally, it’s that they don’t like the policy direction,” he said.

“Any party that can go to an election with concrete policies that will address the cost of electricity – and stop a country like Australia, rich in resources – from having the highest power prices in the world, will win the election.

“All the reasons Turnbull had for rolling Abbott, namely that he was a poor communicator, have all applied to Turnbull as well.”