RELATED – HOW THEY STAND: LEAGUE LADDERS
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• BENDIGO LEAGUE – ROUND 17
MARYBOROUGH v SANDHURST
2.20pm Saturday at Maryborough.
The Dragons are ticking the box defensively as shown by their average score against this season being just 55.
To give that some context, over the past 40 years to 1978, only the undefeated Strathfieldsaye of 2015 (53) and Golden Square of 2011 (54) have conceded less points per game than the 2018 Dragons.
However, the Dragons’ goals have dried up in recent weeks with just 20 in their past three games – albeit two of those were victories.
A loss to Eaglehawk last week cost the Dragons their position in the top three and they are now reliant on other results falling their way if they are to claim the double chance.
The challenge for Maryborough will be to stay in the game for as long as it can against an opponent it has copped six losses by more than 100 points in its past seven encounters with.
Last time: Sandhurst 24.16 (160) d Maryborough 7.11 (53)
Since 1995: Sandhurst 37; Maryborough 15.
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KANGAROO FLAT v EAGLEHAWK
2.20pm Saturday at Kangaroo Flat.
The Hawks can look forward to the finals series knowing they have the double chance safely locked away with two rounds remaining.
Their past four games have included victories against fellow top-five teams Sandhurst (17), Kyneton (58) and Golden Square (21) in what is a solid formline as the business end approaches.
As shown by their 167-point margin in round eight, the Hawks are in a far different class to the young Kangaroo Flat, but in what’s an encouraging sign for the Roos they have shown with competitive outings against South Bendigo (lost by 16) and Golden Square (lost by 14) in their past two games that they certainly aren’t raising the white flag late in the season.
Last time: Eaglehawk 32.15 (207) d Kangaroo Flat 6.4 (40)
Since 1995: Eaglehawk 31; Kangaroo Flat 19.
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CASTLEMAINE v KYNETON
2.20pm Saturday at Castlemaine.
Having lost three elimination finals in a row, Kyneton needs no reminding of the value of the double chance and right now it’s the Tigers to lose having fought their way back into third spot last week with a 51-point victory over Maryborough.
Barring a catastrophe against a Castlemaine side that has lost 11 of its past 15 games by more than 100 points, the Tigers will still have their double chance destiny in their own hands heading into the last round a week later at home against Golden Square.
Last time: Kyneton 29.14 (188) d Castlemaine 9.6 (60)
Since 1995: Castlemaine 26; Kyneton 20.
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GOLDEN SQUARE v GISBORNE
2.20pm Saturday at Golden Square.
The marquee game of round 17 that will either keep the finals race alive heading into the last round, or shut the door on the top five.
The scenario is simple. If Golden Square wins at home the Bulldogs will guarantee they continue an unbroken run of finals appearances that date back to 2005 – currently the longest streak in the AFLCV region.
But lose and sixth-placed Gisborne – which defeated Golden Square earlier in the season by 29 points – will draw level on 40 points with the Bulldogs and their finals aspirations will still be alive heading into round 18.
For the sake of maximising interest in the last round, a Gisborne victory at Wade Street where it hasn’t won since it last played finals in 2014 would do just that
Last time: Gisborne 15.5 (95) d Golden Square 9.12 (66)
Head to Head: Golden Square 24; Gisborne 21.
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SOUTH BENDIGO v STRATHFIELDSAYE
5.30pm Saturday at QEO.
The Storm would be licking their lips at this fixture – a game under lights at the QEO, just like the second semi-final is set to be three weeks later.
A Strathfieldsaye win should be enough to lock up top spot and a second semi-final berth given the Storm are a game, plus a decisive 36 per cent, clear of Eaglehawk, which is the only team that can catch them.
One of the points of interest in the game will be at either goalsquare and whether Strathfieldsaye’s Lachlan Sharp (60 goals), who now has two games back under his belt from his hamstring injury, can make any inroads on South Bendigo’s Kaiden Antonowicz (69) in the battle for the Ron Best Medal.
The Bloods can’t play finals, but have won four of their past five games.
Last time: Strathfieldsaye 24.13 (157) d South Bendigo 10.10 (70)
Head to Head: Strathfieldsaye 13; South Bendigo 6; Drawn 1.
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• HEATHCOTE DISTRICT LEAGUE
LEITCHVILLE-GUNBOWER v HUNTLY
QUALIFYING FINAL – 2.15pm Saturday at Heathcote.
The finals series opens with Huntly facing what has been its 2018 “kryptonite”.
The Hawks have beaten every team this season, except the Bombers – their opponents in Saturday’s qualifying final.
The reigning premier Bombers, who finished just percentage off top spot, will carry in the momentum of seven wins in a row during which they have only been outscored in three quarters.
The Hawks are coming off a bye last week, which always poses the question of will they be raring to go from the outset, or scratchy early?
Last time: Leitchville-Gunbower 18.14 (122) d Huntly 10.10 (70).
Head to Head: Leitchville-Gunbower 15; Huntly 4.
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COLBINABBIN v LBU
ELIMINATION FINAL – 2.15pm Sunday at White Hills.
The Cats make their return to the finals for the first time since 2014 against the Grasshoppers.
It shapes as an enthralling contest given the two sides were only separated by percentage on the ladder and when they met a fortnight ago the Cats won a thriller by two points.
The Grasshoppers have carried more expectation this season and it would be a step backwards from last year’s first semi-final appearance if they can’t get over the line, while 2018 is already a major step back in the right direction for the Cats whatever happens from here.
Last time: LBU 11.13 (79) d Colbinabbin 11.11 (77).
Head to Head: Colbinabbin 24; LBU 17.
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• LODDON VALLEY LEAGUE – ROUND 18
MARONG v BRIDGEWATER
2.15pm Saturday at Marong.
The Mean Machine have been accustomed to preparing for a finals series come round 18, but for the first time since 2006 they will be on-lookers come the home and away final siren.
It’s also the last game of the season for the Panthers, who will finish eighth – either with three or four wins.
Last time: Bridgewater 20.12 (132) d Marong 11.9 (75).
Since 1995: Bridgewater 30; Marong 20.
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MITIAMO v INGLEWOOD
2.15pm Saturday at Mitiamo.
Simple scenario for Mitiamo – beat the Blues and it doesn’t matter what else happens around the competition, they are safe in finals.
However, if the Superoos suffer an upset in what would be a massive boilover given they are playing the bottom side that hasn’t had a win since April, they will need to take a keen interest in the BL-Serpentine v Calivil United clash, which would then have a bearing on whether they play finals or not.
Last time: Mitiamo 14.20 (104) d Inglewood 11.6 (72).
Since 1995: Mitiamo 39; Inglewood 10.
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BL-SERPENTINE v CALIVIL UNITED
2.15pm Saturday at Serpentine.
Calculators could be a popular item among Demons supporters given sixth-placed Calivil United not only needs to defeat the Bears, but do so by a margin that would allow the reigning premiers to overhaul the 13.31 percentage difference between the two sides to snatch a spot in the finals.
Although, they can also still get to the finals with just a win over the Bears, but they would then be relying on Inglewood beating Mitiamo.
Last time: Calivil United 14.9 (93) d BL-Serpentine 11.10 (76).
Since 1995: Calivil United 32; BL-Serpentine 20.
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MAIDEN GULLY YCW v NEWBRIDGE
5.30pm Saturday at Maiden Gully.
Big night at Maiden Gully with the first match to be played under lights between the top two teams that may be a grand final preview.
It’s still possible for the Eagles to snare top spot, but unlikely given it would be a major surprise to see the Maroons, who are a game clear, beaten by a margin significant enough that would see their percentage (153.6) drop below the Eagles (136.8).
Last time: Maiden Gully YCW 14.11 (95) d Newbridge 11.17 (83).
Since 1995: Newbridge 28; Maiden Gully YCW 21.
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