The Federal National Party has never experienced a more seismic event than the Barnaby Joyce saga. Not only has it rocked the relationship between the coalition partners, it has exposed a deep, acrimonious and bitter rift within the federal parliamentary Nationals.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
These divisions in the National Party are not doctrinal or ideological but appear to be more personal, with state-based animosities clearly evident.
The Nationals internal division is sure to have an electoral impact at the next federal election, which Malcolm Turnbull says will be in the first half of next year. Before examining the potential electoral damage though, it is worthwhile briefly revisiting the damage done to the Nationals brand, which, in many ways, was so tied up in Joyce’s public persona.
Joyce has gone from National Party saviour to pariah in only a matter of months, chiefly because of his own personal conduct: this avowedly conservative family man is now rightly regarded a complete hypocrite.
His career is in tatters, and it would seem that the electoral fortunes of the party, particularly in NSW and Queensland, will be severely tested.
None of Joyce’s personal travails have been aided by an over-zealous prime minister or, at times, an over-reaching media.
Nevertheless, the damage is done.
The Nationals, who claim credit for winning an additional seat in 2016, and thus securing government for the coalition, could now easily lose two, perhaps three and maybe even four northern seats.
Michelle Laundry, the Nationals whip in the House, has a wafer-thin margin of less than 1 per cent in Capricornia. Ken O’Dowd in Flynn has a margin of just over 1pc.
Even maverick MP, George Christensen, with a margin of just over 3pc, is in danger of losing his seat of Dawson.
Then Kevin Hogan in Page, a highly volatile seat, faces the prospect of defeat with a slim 2.3pc margin.
If the Nationals lose all of these seats, or just some, as it could well do, Joyce will get the blame. And most of the blame will be deserved.
But not all of it. The coalition is trailing 53/47 on a two-party-preferred basis in the latest Newspoll, their 29th consecutive loss.
Policy failures, an inability to get important key measures passed by the Senate, Labor’s more attractive progressive social and economic policies, and the constant sniping from a small group of right-wing rebels has all contributed to the government being behind in the polls.
The election is one year away.
Bendigo-based Nationals deputy leader, Brigid McKenzie, has assured me that, “every member of the Nationals team is unified…” Perhaps unified in pursuing their broader policy goals, but definitely not united as a team.
This is the challenge that McKenzie and new Nationals leader, Michael McCormack, now face. In the run up to next year’s election they have to find a way to stem the damage caused by Joyce. Achieving party unity will take much longer than a year.
One particularly difficult electoral problem will be staunching the probable flow of votes to One Nation in Queensland, and the subsequent fracturing of the conservative vote. If that happens the loss of a Senate seat in Queensland would also become a distinct possibility.
The Nationals now face their biggest electoral challenge for decades.