Bureau of Meteorology outlooks suggests average rainfall but warmer days for central Victoria in spring

Much of central Victoria will miss out on the wet October forecast for eastern Australia but can expect a hotter-than-average few months, the latest climate outlook suggests.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s October outlook gives a 45 to 55 per cent chance that most of the region will exceed its median rainfall for the month.

The northern half of the region has only slightly better chances, with a 55 to 60 per cent chance.

But across most of eastern Australia, October is likely to be wetter than average.

November looks set to be a drier month: meteorologists say there is only a 40 to 45 per cent chance of above-median rainfall across central Victoria.

But overall, for the three months of October to December, central Victoria can expect average rainfall.

It follows a dry September in Victoria, which saw 27 per cent less rain than the long-term mean.

Rainfall in September as a percentage of the mean. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology

Rainfall in September as a percentage of the mean. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology

Bendigo saw fewer than 14 millimetres of rain last month; on average, the city receives at least 50 millimetres.

But Donald farmer Mark Donnellon said subsoil moisture from last year meant crops were doing well, despite the drier month across the state.

But he said an inch of rain this week, and another before the end of the month, would be welcomed.

Failing that, Mr Donnellon said, he hoped it would be a “very cool run into December”.

Temperature-wise, the next three months are likely to be warmer than average across almost the entire region.

While October is expected to be a fairly average month, the BOM says it looks likely that average minimum and maximum temperatures will, overall, be exceeded in the months to December.

But the likelihood of warmer than average maximum temperatures falls towards the north-west of the region, with temperatures looking set to be average in the Donald area.

Bendigo’s average daytime temperature for that three-month period is 23.7 degrees.

On Wednesday, central Victoria can expect a mostly sunny day, with Bendigo forecast to reach 25 degrees.

Echuca is anticipated to hit a high of 26 degrees, Redesdale 25 degrees, Maryborough and Castlemaine 24 degrees, and Kyneton 22 degrees.

But on Thursday a low pressure system and associated trough are likely to bring rain and showers, which could linger until at least next Monday.

This will see daytime temperatures drop by a few degrees tomorrow, and on Friday, Bendigo’s forecast maximum falls to 19 degrees.

But at the weekend, temperatures are expected to begin to rise again.