The High Court has knocked back two challenges to the Coalition's postal vote on same-sex marriage. So what happens now?
1. The government heaves a massive sigh of relief
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If Malcolm Turnbull's postal vote plan was knocked back by the High Court, it would have been messy and embarrassing. While the head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics, David Kalisch???, told a parliamentary inquiry on Thursday the government had begun contingency planning in case of a High Court "no", there was no obvious - or easy - plan C.
2. The "yes" and "no" campaigns kick off for real
The campaigns have been trundling along for almost a month now, their leaders not sure if the vote would go ahead. It's go-for-broke time now for both sides. If you thought there have been lots of posters, ads and arguments already, think again. On Thursday, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann??? said the government will look at using Parliament next week to set up safeguards relating to "misleading and deceptive conduct" in the campaign. This is because the postal vote is not covered by the Electoral Act.
3. People get voting
Voting papers will be sent to all eligible voters on the electoral roll from Tuesday. Voting will be voluntary. The ABS is "strongly" encouraging people to return their forms by Friday, October 27, but the absolute deadline is 6pm on Tuesday, November 7.
4. The result is declared
The ABS will take a week to do its count and release the "statistics" about the survey on Wednesday November 15.
5. If there's a "yes" vote ...
If Australia votes in favour of same-sex marriage, Mr Turnbull has promised Parliament will vote on the issue before Christmas. This means both houses of Parliament need to vote by December 7, when it rises for the year.
The postal survey result is not binding on MPs. Some MPs say they will respect the outcome of a "yes" vote in the postal survey - in their electorates, states or nationally - and so vote "yes" in Parliament. Others have said they will vote "no" regardless. Educated estimates still say the numbers are there in Parliament to legalise same-sex marriage.
6. If there's a "no" vote ...
The "no" campaign will claim a big victory and declare the matter settled. But the issue will not go away. Marriage equality advocates are not going to drop this. There will be pressure (again) on Liberal MPs to agitate for a free vote in the party room and, if not, to cross the floor to bring on a vote in Canberra.
Labor also says that if it wins government at the next election, it will legislate for same-sex marriage within its first 100 days in office (depending, of course, on the Senate).
