The analysis, completed by the Victorian Greens, broke down the numbers from last year’s federal election and found the party led by Pauline Hanson would likely be in a two-way tussle for the final upper house seat for Northern Victoria.

With a favourable preference deal from the Coalition or Labor, the party would likely claim the seat.

The figures show the Coalition would easily retain two of the Northern Victoria upper house seats, with Labor also likely to win two.

The Greens sat on 8.19 per cent – short of the required quota of 16.7, but preferences could push them over the line for the fifth and final seat.

At the other end of the political spectrum, One Nation would likely absorb votes from other right-wing and religious parties, which combined polled close to 14 per cent. With preferences from the Coalition, it would give the party the final seat in Northern Victoria.

The fifth seat is currently held by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party.

Before next year’s Victorian election, One Nation will field candidates in Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania – potential litmus tests for the resurgent right-wing party.

Victorian Greens leader Greg Barber said it was up to Liberal leader Matthew Guy and Premier Daniel Andrews to preference One Nation last.

“They need to come out and say they’re going to put Pauline Hanson last,” he said.

“It’s what Jeff Kennett did 20 years ago, last time One Nation were on this run. The polling nationally suggests she’s doubled her vote since the federal election, and I think that’s probably right.”

Bendigo is the largest regional centre in the Northern Victoria region, which stretches from Mildura to Wodonga, and south to Whittlesea.

A national poll this week put One Nation’s primary vote ahead of the Greens.

The Victorian upper house is where One Nation could make gains in Victoria, with their primary vote still too low to seriously challenge for a lower house seat.

At last year’s federal election, their primary vote in Bendigo was 3.1 per cent – coming in behind the Greens and Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party.

The next Victorian election is expected to be in November next year.