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JULY 2 is hardly a time to be outdoors in Castlemaine, Maldon, Kyneton and Woodend. It’s freezing.
Brave souls will be manning polling booths, and even braver souls will be venturing inside to vote.
In 2013, these southern towns proved to be Labor strongholds.
In Castlemaine and Castlemaine North, Labor received 70 per cent of the two party preferred vote – a massive boost in a close race.
Maldon delivered a 58-42 win for Labor, while 52 per cent of Kyneton voters preferred Labor, along with a further 58 per cent in Woodend These were big results in big booths, and helped Lisa Chesters claim victory.
Her margin of 1.3 per cent made it one of the most marginal seats in the country.
Later, the Liberal Party’s candidate Greg Bickley regretted not spending more time in these towns. He polled well in Strathfieldsaye, Strathdale and Maiden Gully – but in the end, he fell just short of becoming Bendigo’s first Liberal candidate since Bruce Reid, who left office in 1998.
So it seemed obvious that, this time around, the Liberal Party would make the southern towns a priority. And what better way than to select a local – Maldon businesswoman Megan Purcell.
Where Bickley had an advantage in running against a new Labor candidate at an election hostile to Labor, Purcell instead benefits from a strong public profile in traditionally progressive towns.
She regularly posted videos to Facebook speaking in smaller towns and often speaks about her work in Maldon. She has promised $1.9 million to upgrade sporting facilities in Castlemaine and $250,000 for the Kyneton Showgrounds.
There was also a promise of $10 million to repair the Calder – funding that is likely to flow in these areas.
Across Australia, smaller towns usually vote Liberal – but these central Victorian towns are an exception. Turning this around could be a critical first step in winning the seat.
For Labor, lower socioeconomic areas delivered votes in Bendigo. A focus on increasing health and education funding makes it seem an attractive choice – both topics were the focus of Labor mail outs early in the campaign.
At the last election, 58 per cent of voters in Eaglehawk preferred Chesters, along with 56 per cent in Kangaroo Flat, 64 per cent in Long Gully, 61 per cent in Bendigo North and 59 per cent in California Gully.
Golden Square voters, too, preferred Labor on 59 per cent.
These are some of Bendigo’s biggest polling booths. Only Castlemaine is comparable in size.
Burning questions
The burning question this year is: Will the ongoing CFA dispute affect the vote in Bendigo?
Despite the federal government having limited power over the dispute, which sits clearly in the state jurisdiction, the issue has remained prominent throughout the campaign.
The electorate’s smallest towns usually vote Liberal in strong numbers. Voters in these booths are likely to be the most aggrieved by the CFA dispute – towns like Redesdale, Axedale, Goornong and Lockwood.
On Friday, a tanker from Pine Grove – from the electorate of Murray – was seen driving through the Bendigo CBD with a “save the volunteers” poster on the back.
Will it have an impact in suburban Bendigo? A summer election would be even more of a problem for Labor, but freezing mornings, regular rain and snow in some areas means fire might not be front of mind on polling day.
But Bendigo’s brigades do rely heavily on volunteers, and they have been vocal in the lead-up to the election.
Chesters says voters recognise it is a state issue. Purcell believes the federal government can intervene by amending legislation.
Voters will need to ask themselves, is it the biggest issue facing Bendigo and central Victoria right now?
Plans abound
2016 is a fresh election with a fresh prime minister and opposition leader, and (a few) fresh policy positions.
Numbers give a good indication of where the votes are, but reading them won’t sway any votes in Bendigo. So what will?
Purcell’s focus on crime in Hargreaves Mall could resonate with some in those Bendigo suburbs, but Labor’s education funding model focused on student need speaks to the heart of many parents.
Both regularly point to their “plan” for central Victoria, focusing heavily on jobs. So what’s in the plan?
A Coalition government will introduce its Jobs PaTH program, which gives job seekers $200 per fortnight on top of their income support to take part in internships. Businesses will receive $1000 for their involvement.
They will introduce a 1.5 per cent tax cut for businesses with turnover less than $2 million, and a 5 per cent tax cut for unincorporated small businesses. The company tax rate will be cut to 27.5 per cent over the next 10 years.
Purcell hopes this will generate economic activity in Bendigo.
Labor, on the other hand, is offering $20,000 incentives for businesses to hire people aged under 25, older job seekers and mothers looking to return to work. They will also introduce a tax cut for businesses with less than $2 million turnover.
Chesters says a plan to convert all casual Centrelink staff to full-time will also help people into better work, while a crackdown on businesses using foreign worker visas could improve job prospects.
As unemployment, particularly among young people, continues to rise in Bendigo and the rate of economic growth drops below the Australian average, it could be a key policy area for candidates.
NBN roll out
Keech 3D mails USBs overseas rather than rely on slow download speeds in Bendigo. It was just one of many stories of businesses struggling with slow internet in central Victoria, outlined in an iLoddon Mallee submission.
Fortunately, the roll out of the National Broadband Network has received considerable attention from both parties, with clear policy differences.
Labor has promised to roll out fibre-to-the-premises for 10,000 homes and businesses in Bendigo, promising download speeds between 100 megabits and 1 gigabit per second. Construction would start from 2017, but no end date was announced.
Those 10,000 places will be in the Bendigo CBD, Eaglehawk, Epsom, Huntly, Maiden Gully, Marong, White Hills and California Gully. Everywhere else is already part of the fibre-to-the-node plan, and will have to wait until everywhere else is finished to upgrade.
The Coalition will continue rolling out fibre-to-the-node, and believes it will be finished far sooner for all of Bendigo. They say Labor’s plan is $30 billion more expensive nationwide, which Chesters disputes.
They plan to complete the NBN roll out by 2020.
The roll out of the NBN was the number one priority for the Bendigo Business Council, which saw the lack of high speed internet as a major handbrake for business.
Ballarat is receiving fibre-to-the-premises, but during his visit to Bendigo, communications minister Mitch Fifield said fibre-to-the-node speeds would provide strong incentives to live and work in Bendigo.
Prize beckons
The Member for Bendigo after Saturday’s election will have the honour of being part of the opening of the new Bendigo hospital.
But they will also face a range of challenges. As the city grows, so too does youth unemployment. They will need to work together with schools, hospitals, businesses and every day people to ensure Bendigo thrives in an increasingly competitive 21st century.
Could it be 20 years of Labor in Bendigo? Or will the Liberal Party turn around its fortunes in the city’s suburbs to claim an historic victory?