Central Victorian irrigators and farmers could be facing their lowest water allocations since the millennial drought. 

Coliban Water raw water supply manager Steve Healy said the 2016/17 rural season minimum allocation would open at 30 per cent if dry conditions persist.

“That’s in a worst-case scenario,” Mr Healy told the Bendigo Advertiser. 

“The message that we are letting our rural customers know is that that will be the minimum – 30 per cent is a guarantee so that our they will have some idea of what might be available to them and can plan accordingly."

“Especially those with permanent plantings, like apple grower in Harcourt or those with vineyards, they need certainty so we’ve essentially locked away that 30 per cent.

“But it’s just upwards from there as it rains over winter, an average year of rainfall would likely make a huge impact and a even just a slightly-dry year could impact on the allocation favourably.

“We will be relying on inflows we receive over autumn, winter and spring for the allocation to increase above this minimum, which we anticipate will be the case.”

The forecast figure is based on the latest assessment of water that is available for the next rural season when the 2016/17 year commences in July.

Coliban’s water supply is allocated to rural customers – ranging from crop irrigators to livestock and hobby farmers – but the percentage of that allocation which is delivered depends upon water storage levels. 

For the past five years allocations have been delivered at 100 per cent.

“Rural customers may feel the current forecast minimum is quite low when compared to the full allocations provided over the last few years, Mr Healy said. 

“However, the recent sequence of drier years we have experienced, and the effect of this on our water resource position, means we now need to balance what water we allocate for next season and what water we carry over for the 2017/18 season as well.

“Essentially our forward planning cycle takes into account supply over the next two seasons.

“We do anticipate the forecast minimum for 2016/17 will increase as we receive inflows to the catchment, and we will continue to provide customers with the best information we have at hand.”

Central Victoria may miss out on post-El Nino rain: BOM

Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Catherine Ganter said the three-month outlook for most of central Victoria was not overly encouraging.

Ms Ganter said central Victoria would not likely benefit from a weakening El Nino – which generally brings wetter conditions to south-eastern Australia.

“In terms of the outlook for next three months, from April to June, there’s no strong push either way, but if you look at April it is more likely to be drier than normal,” she said.

“May has a 50-50 chance of receiving above average rainfall.

“In terms of temperatures, over the three months there’s a fairly strong chance of above average conditions – that’s for both for maximum and minimum temperatures.” 

Stay tuned for further updates

Mr Healy said Coliban would provide further updates to rural customers over the coming months to assist them in their preparations for the next season. 

Opening allocation will be determined and announced on 1 July 2016.

Are you a Coliban Water rural customer who will be affected by this annoucment? We’d like to hear from you. Contact the reporter at joseph.hinchliffe@fairfaxmedia.com