A heatwave across the Loddon Mallee region over the last three days will cause significant damage to crops.
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Hot dry winds late this week and into next week will exacerbate conditions for farmers experiencing creeping drought in Victoria.
Raywood farmer Andrew Wall said the heat had changed things for many farmers in the region.
He said a lot of farmers were at the stage of evaluating “whether to cut the crop for hay or let them go through on the provision” of harvesting the crop later on.
“Some of it is already too late,” he said.
“They are dropping leaves and as soon as you get that they have to go. It’s unexpected to have this sort of heat at this time of year.
“In some cases it’s about salvaging something off the paddock instead of getting nothing.”
He said it was a calculated gamble. “If I crop is not going to make any grain then just go for it,” he said, “farming is always going to be a bit of a gamble.”
He said the ideal situation at this time of year would be mid to low twenties, no wind and a small amount of rain. “People nearby have already cut for hay – Mitiamo, Boort, Serpentine, Raywood, Kamarooka and Elmore,” he said.
Bendigo Business Council chief executive Leah Sertori said a recent heatwave would have a significant impact on the economy right across Greater Bendigo.
She said a lot of the region’s revenue came from primary industry.
“It’s a very serious issue for Greater Bendigo and Mildura,” she said. “It is related to the change in climate. It’s not like we are heading into a drought, we are already in it.”
Across most regions, drier than average conditions prevailed for winter, with only east Gippsland receiving above-average rainfall, due to east coast lows delivering plenty of rain.
Parts of the Wimmera, Mallee and north central Victoria are still dry, with little sub-soil moisture.
There was a significantly high chance of no or little rainfall across Victoria in October with forecast high temperatures likely to impact moisture in crops and soils.
Victoria’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) confirmed on Tuesday the warmer Pacific Ocean would begin to contribute hot winds across the State.
According to Dr Paul Feikema, BOM Senior Hydrologist, the El Nino was firmly established and was expected to persist into early 2016, possibly autumn its extended timeline before declining.
With a moderately accurate rainfall outlook, rain was expected to be sparse in much of Australia’s eastern states, especially most of Victoria; except for the far east corner of Gippsland, in the region Orbost to Mallacoota and the topmost northwest corner of the Mallee.
Dr Feikema said poor rainfall for much of Australia in August and September had led to low levels of subsoil moisture in much of Victoria.
“The taste of summer in mid-September contributed to it being the warmest month on record,” he said.
Colleague Dr Andrew Watkins, BOM senior climatologist, said western Victoria had some very dry winter months, extending the rainfall deficiency and resulting in poor moisture levels in the soil and no runoff. Low stream-flows across Victoria would continue through the rest of the year.
Although daytime and night temperatures were rising, a colder than average winter would extend with severe frosts expected to continue through Spring, he said.
Dr Watkins predicted the El Nino would rival the 1997-8 drought. The news comes as farmers across Victoria assess their options for crops and livestock.