FORTY-FIVE looms as the magic number for Eaglehawk against Sandhurst on Saturday.
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The Hawks host Sandhurst in the final round of the Bendigo Football League season at Canterbury Park in what’s a contest where third spot is still alive.
The Dragons hold onto third, a game, plus 11 per cent, clear of the Hawks, which begs the question of how big a margin would be required for Eaglehawk to climb to third if it wins the match.
Having got the calculator out in the Addy sports department on Friday and acknowledging that percentages fluctuate dependent on fors and against, it would seem a 45-point win by the Hawks would swing the percentage in their favour.
Clearly, the best chance for Eaglehawk to make up the percentage difference is to significantly stifle the Dragons, considering the Hawks have only averaged 72 points per game against top-three sides this season.
But rather than concerning himself with all the permutations around percentage, all Eaglehawk coach Luke Monaghan is worried about is the four points and taking winning form into the finals with their first scalp.
“Our prime objective is to play good footy and have a win going into the finals,” Monaghan said on Friday.
“There’s obviously the chance that top three beckons if we can have a big enough win, but we’re not concerning ourselves with that.”
The fourth-placed Hawks haven’t lost to a team below them this season, but are still yet to beat a team above them.
A year ago the Hawks had also been unable to beat a team above them before conjuring a round 18 upset against Sandhurst that propelled Eaglehawk into the finals – not that Monaghan is drawing any paralells with this match, other than it’s against the same opponent.
“It’s a different venue, the sides have changed and there’s a lot of players who didn’t play in that game that it wouldn’t mean anything to,” Monaghan said.
The Hawks are coming off a 186-point belting of Maryborough last week, but have lost forward Sean Williams (quad strain).
Sandhurst was bitterly disappointing in copping an 84-point hiding off Golden Square last week, with the result leaving the door to the top three still ajar for the Hawks.
Ryan Threlfall comes into the side for the Hawks, who lost to the Dragons by 33 points at the QEO in round nine in a game they had led by as many as 35 points in the second quarter.
Key midfielder Alex Pollock makes his return to the Sandhurst side from a mid-season knee injury, while Seb Green and Matt Gray are also in.
Ben Anderson, Luke O’Sullivan (both injured) and Ryan Haythorpe are out.