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There is a compelling case for Tony Abbott to bow to the inevitable and facilitate a free vote on marriage equality when the Parliament resumes – but that doesn't mean he'll do it.
With the dominoes of resistance tumbling around the globe, and support for the change at record levels in the polls in Australia, why not get the plaudits for listening and leading?
And, with an eye to having maximum flexibility when it comes to election timing, why not resolve this issue sooner rather than later?
Moreover, if Abbott allows a debate and a majority of Coalition MPs oppose a free vote, the issue will be sorted until it returns in the next Parliament.
Finally, there is the argument that the plan for the legislation to be introduced is utterly consistent with the Abbott view that, if it is to happen, it should be owned by the Parliament. Having laid down the ground rules, why not let this proceed to a conclusion?
Against all of this are three reasons why it won't happen.
The first is that Abbott's view on same-sex marriage hasn't changed – despite the shifts in the United States or Ireland, and the growing support in the polls at home, and the lobbying from inside his own family. As the PM has expressed it to his colleagues, he wants the issue to remain "subterranean".
The second is that he is singularly focused on the twin themes of economic security and national security and convinced that this focus has been the key to his resurgence. Why be diverted now?
The third is that he would face bitter resistance from conservatives in his party who are among his strongest supporters.
There is also a kind of worst-case scenario: a majority of Coalition MPs oppose change but the Coalition party room narrowly supports a free vote in the Parliament that would see legislation for marriage equality carried with overwhelming support from Labor, the Greens and others.
If the remarks attributed to the Prime Minister's spokesman on Wednesday are any indication, it is highly unlikely that the legislation will come before the party room next month. But, if Abbott senses a big shift among his MPs, he may yet become the reluctant facilitator.
The door is ajar, but only just.
