Models raise the mercury

Updated November 6 2012 - 10:14pm, first published October 28 2008 - 10:41am

CENTRAL Victoria is bracing for another hot summer, with the Bureau of Meteorology's latest outlook indicating higher than average temperatures through to January.Higher daytime and night-time temperatures look set to exacerbate an already dry spring and cause more water losses through evaporation.The latest climatic outlook based on modelling of ocean temperatures shows a probability of up to 70 per cent that daytime temperatures will exceed the median from November to January.The probability in relation to night-time temperatures is as high as 80 per cent.However, the silver lining is that rainfall outlooks don't show any strong tendency to be below or above average.Even average rain of about 110mm over the next three months would be a blessing.The two-month spring rainfall total in Bendigo is only 15mm, so it is tracking to be one of the worst on record.Climatologist Robyn Gardiner said the strongest influence on the outlook was the warming trend of the Indian Ocean off Western Australia. Modelling showed a possible increase in northerly airflows from the centre of the continent.At the same time Pacific Ocean temperatures, which most directly influenced the El Nino and La Nina patterns, remained neutral - continuing the indications of a one-year interval between the events. However, from a rainfall perspective it is the weakening of the Indian Ocean dipole that brings the most positive news to Victoria.The IOD is caused by cooler water in the Indonesian and eastern Indian Ocean blocking the generation of moisture-laden air, which historically has given Victoria much of its spring rainfall. Ms Gardiner said modelling showed the indicators had faded from a peak in August and September and were reverting to normal.CSIRO principal research scientist Dr Wenju Cai, a specialist in marine and atmospheric research, believes the dipole has been an important element in the recent failure of spring rains.

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