Bureau forecasts return of El Nino

Updated November 7 2012 - 2:45am, first published July 24 2009 - 12:08pm
TWO LITTLE WORDS: El Nino bodes ill for waterways such as Lake Eppalock.
TWO LITTLE WORDS: El Nino bodes ill for waterways such as Lake Eppalock.

THE Bureau of Meteorology has issued a dire forecast for the next three months that includes a return of the dreaded El Nino.The bureau has predicted warmer than usual temperatures from August to October in a quarterly forecast released yesterday.And anyone who wants to go skiing had better get moving - the days are tipped to be warm and nights mild as the green shoots of an early spring appear. Warm water in the Indian and Pacific oceans is responsible for the gentle forecast. It might be warm but it won’t be wet. Much of eastern Australia is in for dry conditions over the next three months, consistent with the forecast that an El Nino weather pattern is on its way. El Nino sweeps in from the Pacific and usually brings hot, dry weather to Australia. Experts expect one to hit later this year. The words mean “boy child” in Spanish, but the seemingly innocuous term can strike fear into the hearts of farmers.In Australia, the rise of the weather phenomenon, which occurs every three to seven years, generally means less rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and eastern inland Australia.Another one would spell disaster for the agricultural sector, which has had two months of average rainfall.Many farmers are bracing for the possibility of a hot dry spring, which can be devastating for winter crop yields, gets summer cropping off to a poor start and results in fodder shortages. Karl Braganza is acting head of climate analysis at the National Climate Centre of the Bureau of Meteorology.He said climate models showed that in the next six months we could expect greater than a 50 per cent chance of a dry outlook for eastern Australia. “Typically during El Nino, warm water to the north was dragged away from Australia and took moist air with it.“That hasn’t happened yet, but I should stress that in the Pacific Ocean it really does look like an El Nino,” Mr Braganza said. “We’re just waiting to see if the atmosphere locks in with that.”

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